Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage (GsGd), which threaten the health of poultry, wildlife and humans, are spreading across Asia, Europe, Africa and North America but are currently absent from South America and Oceania. In December 2021, H5N1 HPAI viruses were detected in poultry and a free-living gull in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Our phylogenetic analysis showed that these viruses were most closely related to HPAI GsGd viruses circulating in northwestern Europe in spring 2021. Our analysis of wild bird migration suggested that these viruses may have been carried across the Atlantic via Iceland, Greenland/Arctic or pelagic routes. The here documented incursion of HPAI GsGd viruses into North America raises concern for further virus spread across the Americas by wild bird migration.

Climate warming challenges animals to advance their timing of reproduction [1], but many animals appear to be unable to advance at the same rate as their food species [2, 3]. As a result, mismatches can arise between the moment of largest food requirements for their offspring and peak food availability [4-6], with important fitness consequences [7]. For long-distance migrants, adjustment of phenology to climate warming may be hampered by their inability to predict the optimal timing of arrival at the breeding grounds from their wintering grounds [8]. Arrival can be advanced if birds accelerate migration by reducing time on stopover sites [9, 10], but a recent study suggests that most long-distance migrants are on too tight a schedule to do so [11]. This may be different for capital-breeding migrants, which use stopovers not only to fuel migration but also to acquire body stores needed for reproduction [12-14]. By combining multiple years of tracking and reproduction data, we show that a long-distance migratory bird (the barnacle goose, Branta leucopsis) accelerates its 3,000 km spring migration to advance arrival on its rapidly warming Arctic breeding grounds. As egg laying has advanced much less than arrival, they still encounter a phenological mismatch that reduces offspring survival. A shift toward using more local resources for reproduction suggests that geese first need to refuel body stores at the breeding grounds after accelerated migration. Although flexibility in body store use allows migrants to accelerate migration, this cannot solve the time constraint they are facing under climate warming.

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions.Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. K E Y W O R D SBranta leucopsis, climate change, dynamic state variable model, global warming, mistimed arrival

Since the first studies in the mid-twentieth century, lightweight electronic tracking devices have been increasingly used to study waterfowl movements. With half a century of experience and growing sample sizes, it has become clear that the attachment of a tracking device can affect a bird's behaviour and fitness. This becomes problematic when it introduces uncertainty about whether the recorded data represent natural behaviour. Waterfowl may be particularly prone to tag effects, since many species are migratory and tracking devices can disrupt their waterproof plumage. The primary aim of this paper is to identify how tracking devices may affect waterfowl survival, migration and reproduction, and how better measuring and reporting of such effects can improve our understanding of the risks, providing a first step towards reducing their impact in future studies. We reviewed literature on electronic tracking of waterfowl to create an overview of currently recognized effects of harness-attached backpacks, implants, subcutaneous attachments and neck collars. Additionally, we analysed developments in the use of attachment methods, the weight of tracking devices relative to bird body mass, and the reporting rate of effects of tracking devices in 202 original tracking studies. We found that although the number of waterfowl tracking studies described in peer-reviewed literature has steeply increased over the past decades, reporting rates of potential effects have decreased from 65.0 to 26.5%. Meanwhile, the mean weight of the tracking devices relative to the bird's body mass remained stable around 2.0%. Major negative effects were reported in 17% of all studies and were found for all attachment methods. Overall, large differences exist in the occurrence and type of negative effects between species and studies, even if the same tracking methods were used. Inconsistent reporting of effects, lack of control groups to measure effects and incomplete descriptions of the methodology hamper the identification of factors contributing to these effects. To accomplish a reduction in adverse effects of tracking, it is necessary to improve the measuring and reporting of effects. We propose a framework for standardized reporting of methods in primary tracking studies and standardized protocols to measure effects of tracking devices on waterfowl.