No abstract

One of the main ways we try to understand the COVID-19 pandemic is through time series cross section counts of cases and deaths. Observational studies based on these kinds of data have concrete and well known methodological issues that suggest significant caution for both consumers and produces of COVID-19 knowledge. We briefly enumerate some of these issues in the areas of measurement, inference, and interpretation.

How do international crises unfold? We conceive of international affairs as a strategic chess game between adversaries, necessitating a systematic way to measure pieces, moves, and gambits accurately and consistently over different contexts and periods. We develop such a measurement strategy with an ontology of crisis actions and interactions and apply it to a high-quality corpus of crisis narratives recorded by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. We demonstrate that the ontology has high coverage over most of the thoughts, speech, and actions contained in these narratives and produces high inter-coder agreement when applied by human coders. We introduce a new crisis event dataset ICB Events (ICBe). We find that ICBe captures the process of a crisis with greater accuracy and granularity than other well-regarded events or crisis datasets. We make the data, replication material, and additional visualizations available at a companion website www.crisisevents.org.