After three years of cold conditions, warm water has returned to Ilulissat Icefjord, home to Jakobshavn Isbrae-Greenland's largest outlet glacier. Jakobshavn has slowed and thickened since 2016, when waters near the glacier cooled from 3 °C to 1.5 °C. Fjord temperatures remained cold through at least the end of 2019, but in March 2020, temperatures in the fjord warmed to 2.8 °C. As a result of the warming, we forecast that Jakobshavn Isbrae will accelerate and resume thinning during the 2020 melt season. The fjord's profound in uence on glacier behavior, and the connectivity between fjord conditions and regional ocean climate imply a degree of predictability that we aim to test with this forecast. Given the global importance of sea-level rise, we must advance our ability to forecast such rapidly changing systems, and this work represents an important rst step in glacier forecasting.

Dielectric multilayer reflectors that are non-polarizing are an important class of optical device and have numerous applications within optical fibres [1], dielectric waveguides [2] and LEDs [3]. Here we report analyses of a biological non-polarizing optical mechanism found in the broadband guanine-cytoplasm “silver” multilayer reflectors of three species of fish. Present in the fish stratum argenteum are two populations of birefringent guanine crystal, each with their optic axes either parallel to the long axis of the crystal or perpendicular to the plane of the crystal. This arrangement neutralizes the polarization of reflection due the different interfacial Brewster’s angles of each population. The fish reflective mechanism is distinct from existing non-polarizing mirror designs [4, 5, 6, 7] with the important feature that there is no refractive index contrast between the low index layers in the reflector and the external environment. It is a mechanism that could be readily manufactured and exploited in synthetic optical devices.

Ice crystal orientation fabric (COF) records information about past ice-sheet deformation and influences the present-day flow of ice. Polarimetric radar sounding provides a means to infer anisotropic COF patterns due to the associated birefringence of polar ice. Here we develop a polarimetric coherence (phase-based) method to determine horizontal properties of the COF. The method utilizes the azimuth and depth-dependence of the vertical gradient of the hhvv coherence phase to infer the dielectric principal axes and birefringence which are then related to the second order fabric orientation tensor. Specifically, under the assumption that one of the orientational eigenvectors is vertical, we can determine the horizontal eigenvectors and the difference between the horizontal eigenvalues (a measure of horizontal fabric asymmetry). The method exploits single-polarized data acquired with varying antenna orientation. It applies to ground-based 'multi-polarization' surveys and is demonstrated using data acquired by CReSIS (Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets) using MCRDs (Multi Channel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder) from the NEEM ice core region in Greenland. The analysis is validated using a combination of polarimetric matrix backscatter simulations and comparison with COF data from the NEEM ice core. The results are consistent with a conventional model of ice deformation at an ice divide where a lateral tension component is present, with minor horizontal COF asymmetry and the greatest horizontal concentration of crystallographic axes orientated near-parallel to the ice divide.

Abstract. Subglacial roughness can be determined at a variety of length scales from radio-echo sounding (RES) data either via statistical analysis of topography or inferred from basal radar scattering. Past studies have demonstrated that subglacial terrain exhibits self-affine (power law) roughness scaling behaviour, but existing radar scattering models do not take this into account. Here, using RES data from northern Greenland, we introduce a self-affine statistical framework that enables a consistent integration of topographicscale roughness with the electromagnetic theory of radar scattering. We demonstrate that the degree of radar scattering, quantified using the waveform abruptness (pulse peakiness), is topographically controlled by the Hurst (roughness power law) exponent. Notably, specular bed reflections are associated with a lower Hurst exponent, with diffuse scattering associated with a higher Hurst exponent. Abrupt waveforms (specular reflections) have previously been used as a RES diagnostic for basal water, and to test this assumption we compare our radar scattering map with a recent prediction for the basal thermal state. We demonstrate that the majority of thawed regions (above pressure melting point) exhibit a diffuse scattering signature, which is in contradiction to the prior approach. Self-affine statistics provide a generalised model for subglacial terrain and can improve our understanding of the relationship between basal properties and ice-sheet dynamics.