Many field studies have shown that recruitment of the Caribbean spiny lobster, Panulirus argus, is sensitive to variation in both postlarval supply and local nursery-habitat structure. We used a spatially explicit individual-based model, to investigate the effects of (i) spatio-temporal variation in postlarval supply and (ii) changes in the spatial structure of the nursery habitat on lobster recruitment to the Florida Keys, Florida (USA). By simulating eight different regional scenarios describing postlarval supply, we investigated whether differences in the spatio-temporal delivery of postlarvae to the Florida Keys alters recruitment of subadult lobsters. Our results indicate that random geographical variation in postlarval supply yields the highest predicted recruitment, whereas persistently patchy settlement yields the lowest. Field observations of postlarval supply suggest that the random model is the most realistic. In separate simulations, we determined the sensitivity of the model to changes in the geographic arrangement of nursery habitat and the spatial resolution of habitat structure. The most spatially explicit depictions of habitat structure yielded small, but marginally significant differences in lobster recruitment as compared with more generalized spatial scenarios. These differences may well be magnified when more detailed depictions of postlarval settlement are implemented in the model.

Sociality has evolved in a wide range of animal taxa but infectious diseases spread rapidly in populations of aggregated individuals, potentially negating the advantages of their social interactions. To disengage from the coevolutionary struggle with pathogens, some hosts have evolved various forms of “behavioral immunity”; yet, the effectiveness of such behaviors in controlling epizootics in the wild is untested. Here we show how one form of behavioral immunity (i.e., the aversion of diseased conspecifics) practiced by Caribbean spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus) when subject to the socially transmitted PaV1 virus, appears to have prevented an epizootic over a large seascape. We capitalized on a "natural experiment" in which a die-off of sponges in the Florida Keys (USA) resulted in a loss of shelters for juvenile lobsters over a ~2500km2 region. Lobsters were thus concentrated in the few remaining shelters, presumably increasing their exposure to the contagious virus. Despite this spatial reorganization of the population, viral prevalence in lobsters remained unchanged after the sponge die-off and for years thereafter. A field experiment in which we introduced either a healthy or PaV1-infected lobster into lobster aggregations in natural dens confirmed that spiny lobsters practice behavioral immunity. Healthy lobsters vacated dens occupied by PaV1-infected lobsters despite the scarcity of alternative shelters and the higher risk of predation they faced when searching for a new den. Simulations from a spatially-explicit, individual-based model confirmed our empirical results, demonstrating the efficacy of behavioral immunity in preventing epizootics in this system.

Coastal habitats that serve as nursery grounds for numerous marine species are badly degraded, yet the traditional means of modeling populations of exploited marine species handle spatiotemporal changes in habitat characteristics and life history dynamics poorly, if at all. To explore how nursery habitat degradation impacts recruitment of a mobile, benthic species, we developed a spatially explicit, individual‐based model that describes the recruitment of Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) in the Florida Keys, where a cascade of environmental disturbances has reconfigured nursery habitat structure. In recent years, the region has experienced a series of linked perturbations, among them, seagrass die‐offs, cyanobacteria blooms, and the mass mortality of sponges. Sponges are important shelters for juvenile spiny lobster, an abundant benthic predator that also sustains Florida's most valuable fishery. In the model, we simulated monthly settlement of individual lobster postlarvae and the daily growth, mortality, shelter selection, and movement of individual juvenile lobsters on a spatially explicit grid of habitat cells configured to represent the Florida Keys coastal nursery. Based on field habitat surveys, cells were designated as either seagrass or hard‐bottom, and hard‐bottom cells were further characterized in terms of their shelter‐ and size‐specific lobster carrying capacities. The effect of algal blooms on sponge mortality, hence lobster habitat structure, was modeled based on the duration of exposure of each habitat cell to the blooms. Ten‐year simulations of lobster recruitment with and without algal blooms suggest that the lobster population should be surprisingly resilient to massive disturbances of this type. Data not used in model development showed that predictions of large changes in lobster shelter utilization, yet small effects on recruitment in response to blooms, were realistic. The potentially severe impacts of habitat loss on recruitment were averted by compensatory changes in habitat utilization and mobility by larger individuals, coupled with periods of fortuitously high larval settlement. Our model provides an underutilized approach for assessing habitat effects on open populations with complex life histories, and our results illustrate the potential pitfalls of relying on intuition to infer the effects of habitat perturbations on upper trophic levels.

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Social behavior confers numerous benefits to animals but also risks, among them an increase in the spread of pathogenic diseases. We examined the trade-off between risk of predation and disease transmission under different scenarios of host spatial structure and disease avoidance behavior using a spatially explicit, individual-based model of the host pathogen interaction between juvenile Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) and Panulirus argus Virus 1 (PaV1). Spiny lobsters are normally social but modify their behavior to avoid diseased conspecifics, a potentially effective means of reducing transmission but one rarely observed in the wild. We found that without lobster avoidance of diseased conspecifics, viral outbreaks grew in intensity and duration in simulations until the virus was maintained continuously at unrealistically high levels. However, when we invoked disease avoidance at empirically observed levels, the intensity and duration of outbreaks was reduced and the disease extirpated within five years. Increased lobster (host) spatial aggregation mimicking that which occurs when sponge shelters for lobsters are diminished by harmful algal blooms, did not significantly increase PaV1 transmission or persistence in lobster populations. On the contrary, behavioral aversion of diseased conspecifics effectively reduced viral prevalence, even when shelters were limited, which reduced shelter availability for all lobsters but increased predation, especially of infected lobsters. Therefore, avoidance of diseased conspecifics selects against transmission by contact, promotes alternative modes of transmission, and results in a more resilient host-pathogen system.