National statistical agencies lack statistical methodology to express uncertainty in their released estimated overall rankings. For example, the US Census Bureau produced an 'explicit' ranking of the states based on observed sample estimates during 2011 of mean travel time to work. Current literature provides measures of uncertainty in estimated individual ranks, but not a direct measure of uncertainty for the estimated overall ranking. We construct and visualize a joint confidence region for the true unknown overall ranking that provides a measure of uncertainty in the estimated overall ranking.

In this study we tested the validity of the National Organic Program (NOP) requirement for a >120-day interval between application of noncomposted manure and harvesting of vegetables grown in manure-fertilized soil. Noncomposted bovine manure was applied to 9.3-m 2 plots at three Wisconsin sites (loamy sand, silt loam, and silty clay loam) prior to spring and summer planting of carrots, radishes, and lettuce. Soil and washed (30 s under running tap water) vegetables were analyzed for indigenous Escherichia coli. Within 90 days, the level of E. coli in manure-fertilized soil generally decreased by about 3 log CFU/g from initial levels of 4.2 to 4.4 log CFU/g. Low levels of E. coli generally persisted in manure-fertilized soil for more than 100 days and were detected in enriched soil from all three sites 132 to 168 days after manure application. For carrots and lettuce, at least one enrichment-negative sample was obtained <100 days after manure application for 63 and 88% of the treatments, respectively. The current >120-day limit provided an even greater likelihood of not detecting E. coli on carrots (>1 enrichment-negative result for 100% of the treatments). The rapid maturation of radishes prevented conclusive evaluation of a 100-or 120-day application-to-harvest interval. The absolute absence of E. coli from vegetables harvested from manure-fertilized Wisconsin soils may not be ensured solely by adherence to the NOP >120-day limit. Unless pathogens are far better at colonizing vegetables than indigenous E. coli strains are, it appears that the risk of contamination for vegetables grown in Wisconsin soils would be elevated only slightly by reducing the NOP requirement to >100 days.

The paper addresses the problem of estimating future claim payments from the 'run-off' of past claim payments. A model of the claim payment process is postulated. Results from risk theory are applied to give a model for the incremental paid claims data by development period. A fitting method is developed which takes account of the error structure of the data implied by the underlying model of the claim payment process. The application of a similar method to incremental incurred data is considered. A numerical example is given.

Fresh bovine manure was mechanically incorporated into loamy sand and silty clay loam Wisconsin soils in April 2004. At varying fertilization-to-planting intervals, radish, lettuce, and carrot seeds were planted; crops were harvested 90, 100, 110 or 111, and 120 days after manure application. As an indicator of potential contamination with fecal pathogens, levels of Escherichia coli in the manure-fertilized soil and presence of E. coli on harvested vegetables were monitored. From initial levels of 4.0 to 4.2 log CFU/g, E. coli levels in both manure-fertilized soils decreased by 2.4 to 2.5 log CFU/g during the first 7 weeks. However, E. coli was consistently detected from enriched soil samples through week 17, perhaps as a result of contamination by birds and other wildlife. In the higher clay silty clay loam soil, the fertilization-to-planting interval affected the prevalence of E. coli on lettuce but not on radishes and carrots. Root crop contamination was consistent across different fertilization-to-harvest intervals in silty clay loam, including the National Organic Program minimum fertilization-to-harvest interval of 120 days. However, lettuce contamination in silty clay loam was significantly (P < 0.10) affected by fertilization-to-harvest interval. Increasing the fertilization-to-planting interval in the lower clay loamy sand soil decreased the prevalence of E. coli on root crops. The fertilization-to-harvest interval had no clear effect on vegetable contamination in loamy sand. Overall, these results do not provide grounds for reducing the National Organic Program minimum fertilization-to-harvest interval from the current 120-day standard.