The water quality of lakes is highly dependent on external phosphorus (P) loading. The vast external loadings from sewage and other wastewater discharge that European lakes have historically received have been dramatically reduced today by improved wastewater treatment. Gaining knowledge of the catchment characteristics that influence external P-loading should enable predictions of the achievable water quality of lakes. In this study, we tested this proposition. Data from 90 new Danish lakes show no apparent relationship between the mean summer P-concentration and the size or land use of the catchments. The external P-loading and resulting annual P-concentration were further investigated on a representative subset of 12 of the new lakes, using six methods. Three of the methods used empirical estimates of P-transport from catchments, based on the national average P-transport, runoff-dependent P-transport, and crop-dependent P-transport, and the other three methods used different empirical models tested on the lakes. External P-loading was reliably predicted by several of the methods. The predictions of the annual P-concentration were highly dependent on the inclusion of annual runoff. However, the predicted P-concentrations were generally overestimated, most pronounced for the nutrient-poor and most recently established lakes. In these lakes, internal P-loading was found to be the most important factor in predicting achievable water quality.

New lakes are established or reestablished to provide ecosystem services such as limiting floods and nutrient discharge and to improve biodiversity. New lakes are often established on fertilized land formerly used for agricultural purposes, thereby posing a risk of issues such as phosphorus (P) release when inundated. Release of P from agricultural soil affects both the developing ecosystem of the new lake and may increase downstream eutrophication. To decrease P release following inundation, three simple and cost-effective soil pretreatments were tested through laboratory soil–water fluxes from the test sites in the new Lake Roennebaek and the fluxes of P, nitrogen (N), and iron (Fe) were compared. The pretreatments compared were sand-capping, depth-plowing, and addition of the commercial iron product CFH-12® (Kemira). Untreated agricultural soil incubated under laboratory conditions released 687 ± 88 mg P·m−2 over 207 days and 85% was released within 60 days from inundation followed by low soil–water P exchange during the remaining incubation period. However, P was still released from the untreated soil 180 days after inundation within the lake. The cumulated P flux of the three pretreatment methods was in comparison negative, between −12 ± 3 and −17 ± 4 mg P·m−2 over 207 days incubation and showed negative P fluxes from cores collected within the lake 180 days after inundation. This study showed that the release of P when establishing new lakes on former agricultural land could be minimized using these simple and cost-effective methods, which may improve the ecological status of future lakes and enable the establishment of new lakes without threatening vulnerable downstream ecosystems.