PurposeInflation targeting has increasingly become a popular monetary framework since its first introduction in New Zealand at the beginning of 1990. However, the causality effects of this policy on economic performance, particularly in periods of economic turmoil remain controversial. Thus, this paper re-examines the treatment effect of inflation targeting on two important macro indicators which are inflation rate and output growth with the focus on emerging market economies. The global financial crisis, which is known as the great recession since the last decade, is investigated as an exogenous shock to test for the effectiveness of this popular regime.Design/methodology/approachThe difference-in-difference approach in the fixed-model is employed for this investigation using a balanced panel data of 54 countries with 15 inflation-targeting countries for the period 2002 to 2010.FindingsThe examination finds that there is no significant difference in terms of the inflation rate and gross domestic product growth over the whole research period between the treatment and control groups. However, the outcome suggests that emerging economies can control the increase in inflation rate when the economy has to cope with the exogenous uncertainties.Research limitations/implicationsThis finding indicates important policy implications for central banks in many countries.Originality/valueInflation targeting can help emerging countries to reduce an increase in inflation rate in the crisis period without many trade-offs in the growth of output.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of several structural shocks in oil prices on the Vietnamese economy and answer three key research questions: Is there a relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators in Vietnam? How do different types of oil price impulses affect Vietnamese inflation and economic performance? To what extent do structural shocks in oil prices explain variations in Vietnam’s macroeconomic indicators? Design/methodology/approach Lower triangular Cholesky decomposition is performed on a short-term impact matrix in a two-block structural vector autoregressive model. The data set is defined monthly, from January 2000 to December 2021. The contributions of structural shocks in oil prices to the domestic variances are analysed using variance decomposition methods. In this study, both forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition are used. Findings The consequences of oil price fluctuations on Vietnamese output and inflation depend on different sources of oil price shocks. In comparison, oil supply shocks have an insignificant effect on both domestic industrial output and consumer price index inflation; however, positive shocks in aggregate and precautionary oil demands increase these domestic indicators substantially and sustainably. An analysis of variance decompositions reveals that supply-side oil shocks have very limited explanatory power for variations in domestic variables. Nevertheless, the contributions of unanticipated demand-side booms to domestic variations in the past and projected forecasts are considerable. Research limitations/implications The findings from this research uncover potential risks for Vietnam’s economic prospects if the consequences of oil price shocks are not managed effectively. Originality/value Given the lack of economic sensitivity to supply-side oil shocks and the strong response to shifts in oil demands, greater pressure on the domestic economy is likely when Vietnam increases its dependence on oil imports.

PurposeThis paper investigates the relationship between domestic gold prices and inflation in Vietnam based on the monthly series of the gold price index and consumer price index over the period of December 2001–July 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe co-integration between the domestic gold price and inflation is examined within the autoregressive distributed lag-error correction (ARDL bounds testing) framework. This paper also applies the vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse response function analysis to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. Moreover, since both gold and inflation series are likely to have structural changes over time, a unit root test controlling for significant breaks is employed in this paper.FindingsFindings from the ARDL bounds testing model suggest the presence of a co-integration between the underlying variables. The VECM indicates that shocks in inflation lead to a negative response to gold prices in the long run. In the short term, only fluctuations in gold prices impact inflation, and this causality is unidirectional.Research limitations/implicationsGold is regarded as a critical financial asset to preserve wealth from inflation pressure in the case of Vietnam. These findings propose implications for both investors and policymakers.Originality/valueEmpirical results suggest that inflation has a long-term impact on gold prices in the Vietnamese market. In the existence of a permanent inflationary shock, domestic prices of gold respond negatively to this shock; hence, gold can act as a good hedge against inflation in Vietnam.

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