The Asia-Pacific region is known as a favorite destination for global medical travelers due to its medical expertise, innovative technology, safety, attractive tourism destination and cost advantage in the recent decade. This study contributes to propose an approach which effectively assesses performance of medical tourism industry based on considering the economic impact factors as well as provides a conceptual framework for the industry analysis. Grey system theory is utilized as a major analyzing approach. According to that, factors impact on the sustainable development of medical tourism in Asia-Pacific region could be identified. The performance of each destination in this region was simultaneously revealed. The results presented an overall perspective of the medical tourism industry in the scope of the Asia-Pacific region, and in Taiwan particularly. Data was collected on six major destinations including Singapore, Thailand, India, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan. The results proved that tourism sources and healthcare medical infrastructures play a crucial role in promoting the healthcare travel industry, while cost advantage and marketing effectiveness were less considered. In addition, performance analyse indicated that Thailand has a good performance and stands in the top ranking, followed by Malaysia, India, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, respectively. The revenue of Taiwan has increased slowly in the last six years, with a market worth approximately NT$20.5 billion, and the number of medical travelers is expected to increase to 777,523 by 2025. The findings of this study are expected to provide useful information for the medical tourism industry and related key players in strategic planning.

Abstract:In real practice, forecasting under the limited data has attracted more attention in business activities, especially in the healthcare traveling industry in its current stage. However, there are only a few research studies focusing on this issue. Thus, the purposes of this paper were to determine the forecasted performance of several current forecasting methods as well as to examine their applications. Taking advantage of the small data requirement for model construction, three models including the exponential smoothing model, the Grey model GM(1,1), and the modified Lotka-Volterra model (L.V.), were used to conduct forecasting analyses based on the data of foreign patients from 2001 to 2013 in six destinations. The results indicated that the L.V. model had higher prediction power than the other two models, and it obtained the best forecasting performance with an 89.7% precision rate. In conclusion, the L.V. model is the best model for estimating the market size of the healthcare traveling industry, followed by the GM(1,1) model. The contribution of this study is to offer a useful statistical tool for short-term planning, which can be applied to the healthcare traveling industry in particular, and for other business forecasting under the conditions of limited data in general.

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