This study attempts to explain successive changes in industrial leadership in IT services by employing the catch-up cycle theory developed by Lee and Malerba (Res Policy 46(2):338-351, 2017). A catch-up cycle was observed in which leadership have changed from the US to Ireland and subsequently to India. Currently, there is now a `coexistent leadership` in which both India and Ireland share the leadership position since Ireland has recently recovered some of its market shares. The research has two main contributions: First, it has introduced macroeconomic variables into the catch-up cycle framework and exposed that the over-reliance of Ireland on MNCs made their leadership less sustainable and more sensitive to macroeconomic variations, and thus, argued that wage rate, exchange rate and FDI were important explanatory variables to understand the rise, fall and re-rise of Irish IT service exports. Second, it is shown that India has been more effective in maintaining a leadership position by developing strong indigenous companies, a sectoral system of innovation and through better technological capabilities. Therefore, it brings an important contribution in terms of public policies and catch-up strategies.

We analyse the hypothesis that variations in the income elasticities of the demand for exports and imports are influenced by the difference between the actual and industrial equilibrium levels of real effective exchange rates. The industrial equilibrium is defined as the exchange rate level that equalises real unit labour costs between local producers of manufactured goods and their trading partners. To test our hypothesis, based on data between 1995 and 2014 from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), a sample of 43 countries was built. First, the actual and the industrial equilibrium real effective exchange rates were calculated; then, the income elasticities were estimated for each country during this period. A dynamic panel data model was adopted to estimate the relationship between these elasticities and the differences between those exchange rates. The results suggest that the magnitude of these differences modifies the income elasticities of trade, potentially contributing to structural change.

The paper uses a socioeconomic framework to understand what is behind the dismantling of PT political coalition. First a theoretical discussion presents the interconnections between Developmental State and class coalitions. Second, PT political coalition is described by connecting the interest of different social classes with macroeconomic, industrial and social policies implemented by the government. Finally, it is provided new interpretation and evidence for the abandonment of the industrial capitalist from the dominant coalition. For that, the new-developmentalist argument of the lack of satisfactory profit rate and Furtado’s argument on development-stagnation dichotomy is presented and empirically supported.

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We analyze the hypothesis that variations on manufacturing investment are influenced by the difference between the real effective and industrial equilibrium exchange rates and by the difference between the current account and industrial equilibrium exchange rates (a proxy for the Dutch disease). The current account equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the rate that guarantees that the current account of a country is balanced intertemporally, and the industrial equilibrium exchange rate corresponds to the rate that makes competitive those companies producing internationally tradable non-commodities goods and services in the so-called state-of-art. First, the concepts and methodologies for estimating the current account and industrial equilibrium exchange rate are explained. Then, to test our hypothesis, a database for 24 Brazilian manufacturing sectors was built from 2007 to 2017. A dynamic panel data model was adopted to estimate the relationship between these currency misalignments and the manufacturing investment. The results suggest that the magnitude of those differences influences investment decisions, potentially contributing to economic growth and development.