In this paper, we separately constructed ARIMA, ARIMAX, and RNN models to determine whether there exists an impact of the air pollutants (such as PM2.5, PM10, CO, O3, NO2, and SO2) on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases from January 2014 to December 2018 in Urumqi, Xinjiang. In addition, by using a new comprehensive evaluation index DISO to compare the performance of three models, it was demonstrated that ARIMAX (1,1,2) × (0,1,1)12 + PM2.5 (lag = 12) model was the optimal one, which was applied to predict the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi from January 2019 to December 2019. The predicting results were in good agreement with the actual pulmonary tuberculosis cases and shown that pulmonary tuberculosis cases obviously declined, which indicated that the policies of environmental protection and universal health checkups in Urumqi have been very effective in recent years.

Background Syphilis, a sexually transmitted infectious disease caused by the bacterium treponema pallidum, and it remains a significant cause of morbidity in many developing countries. Mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted infections have provided insights of relevance both to the interpretation of observed epidemiological patterns and to the design of control programs. Goal and Study Design: Based on the syphilis data in China from 2010 to 2020, the SEIRS dynamical model was established to provide theoretical support and quantitative basis for syphilis control in China. Results First of all, Based on the data of syphilis in China from 2010 to 2020, the parameterizations and model calibration are carried out. The fitting results are in good agreement with the data. And then, we calculate the basic reproduction number R0, and R0 = 1.0556, which means that the syphilis epidemic will continue to be prevalent in China. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that the progression rate from incubating to infection (w), treatment rate in infection stage (γ), and treatment rate in incubating stage (α) play a critical role in mitigating the syphilis outbreaks. Conclusion These results can help us gain insights into the epidemiology of syphilis and provide guidance for the public health authorities to implement health education programs.