Determining whether seed production is pollen limited has been an area of intensive empirical study over the last two decades. Yet current evidence does not allow satisfactory assessment of the causes or consequences of pollen limitation. Here, we critically evaluate existing theory and issues concerning pollen limitation. Our main conclusion is that a change in approach is needed to determine whether pollen limitation reflects random fluctuations around a pollen-resource equilibrium, an adaptation to stochastic pollination environments, or a chronic syndrome caused by an environmental perturbation. We formalize and extend D. Haig and M. Westoby's conceptual model, and illustrate its use in guiding research on the evolutionary consequences of pollen limitation, i.e., whether plants evolve or have evolved to ameliorate pollen limitation. This synthesis also reveals that we are only beginning to understand when and how pollen limitation at the plant level translates into effects on plant population dynamics. We highlight the need for both theoretical and empirical approaches to gain a deeper understanding of the importance of life-history characters, Allee effects, and environmental perturbations in population declines mediated by pollen limitation. Lastly, our synthesis identifies a critical need for research on potential effects of pollen limitation at the community and ecosystem levels.

Quantifying the extent to which seed production is limited by the availability of pollen has been an area of intensive empirical study over the past few decades. Whereas theory predicts that pollen augmentation should not increase seed production, numerous empirical studies report significant and strong pollen limitation. Here, we use a variety of approaches to examine the correlates of pollen limitation in an effort to understand its occurrence and importance in plant evolutionary ecology. In particular, we examine the role of recent ecological perturbations in influencing pollen limitation and discuss the relation between pollen limitation and plant traits. We find that the magnitude of pollen limitation observed in natural populations depends on both historical constraints and contemporary ecological factors.

Using historic data sets, we quantified the degree to which global change over 120 years disrupted plant-pollinator interactions in a temperate forest understory community in Illinois, USA. We found degradation of interaction network structure and function and extirpation of 50% of bee species. Network changes can be attributed to shifts in forb and bee phenologies resulting in temporal mismatches, nonrandom species extinctions, and loss of spatial co-occurrences between extant species in modified landscapes. Quantity and quality of pollination services have declined through time. The historic network showed flexibility in response to disturbance; however, our data suggest that networks will be less resilient to future changes.

Abstract. Both means and year-to-year variances of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are predicted to change. However, the potential impact of changing climatic variability on the fate of populations has been largely unexamined. We analyzed multiyear demographic data for 36 plant and animal species with a broad range of life histories and types of environment to ask how sensitive their long-term stochastic population growth rates are likely to be to changes in the means and standard deviations of vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth) in response to changing climate. We quantified responsiveness using elasticities of the long-term population growth rate predicted by stochastic projection matrix models. Short-lived species (insects and annual plants and algae) are predicted to be more strongly (and negatively) affected by increasing vital rate variability relative to longer-lived species (perennial plants, birds, ungulates). Taxonomic affiliation has little power to explain sensitivity to increasing variability once longevity has been taken into account. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of short-lived species to an increasingly variable climate, but also suggest that problems associated with short-lived undesirable species (agricultural pests, disease vectors, invasive weedy plants) may be exacerbated in regions where climate variability decreases.