Northern aapa mire complexes are characterized by patterned fens with flarks (wet fen surfaces) and bog zone margins with Sphagnum moss cover. Evidence exists of a recent increase in Sphagnum over fens that can alter ecosystem functions. Contrast between flarks and Sphagnum moss cover may enable remote sensing of these changes with satellite proxies. We explored recent changes in hydro-morphological patterns and vegetation in a south-boreal aapa mire in Finland and tested the performance of Landsat bands and indices in detecting Sphagnum increase in aapa mires. We combined aerial image analysis and vegetation survey, repeated after 60 years, to support Landsat satellite image analysis. Aerial image analysis revealed a decrease in flark area by 46% between 1947 and 2019. Repeated survey showed increase in Sphagnum mosses (S. pulchrum, S. papillosum) and deep-rooted vascular plants (Menyanthes trifoliata, Carex rostrata). A supervised classification of high-resolution UAV image recognized the legacy of infilled flarks in the patterning of Sphagnum carpets. Among Landsat variables, all separate spectral bands, the Green Difference Vegetation Index (GDVI), and the Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEI) correlated with the flark area. Between 1985 and 2020, near-infrared (NIR) and GDVI increased in the central flark area, and AWEI decreased throughout the mire area. In aapa mire complexes, flark fen and Sphagnum bog zones have contrasting Landsat NIR reflectance, and NIR band is suggested for monitoring changes in flarks. The observed increase in Sphagnum mosses supports the interpretation of ongoing fen–bog transitions in Northern European aapa mires, indicating significant ecosystem-scale changes.

Northern mires (fens and bogs) have significant climate feedbacks and contribute to biodiversity, providing habitats to specialized biota. Many studies have found drying and degradation of bogs in response to climate change, while northern fens have received less attention. Rich fens are particularly important to biodiversity, but subject to global climate change, fen ecosystems may change via direct response of vegetation or indirectly by hydrological changes. With repeated sampling over the past 20 years, we aim to reveal trends in hydrology and vegetation in a pristine boreal fen with gradient from rich to poor fen and bog vegetation. We resampled 203 semi‐permanent plots and compared water‐table depth (WTD), pH, concentrations of mineral elements, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plant species occurrences, community structure, and vegetation types between 1998 and 2018. In the study area, the annual mean temperature rose by 1.0°C and precipitation by 46 mm, in 20‐year periods prior to sampling occasions. We found that wet fen vegetation decreased, while bog and poor fen vegetation increased significantly. This reflected a trend of increasing abundance of common, generalist hummock species at the expense of fen specialist species. Changes were the most pronounced in high pH plots, where Sphagnum mosses had significantly increased in plot frequency, cover, and species richness. Changes of water chemistry were mainly insignificant in concentration levels and spatial patterns. Although indications toward drier conditions were found in vegetation, WTD had not consistently increased, instead, our results revealed complex dynamics of WTD as depending on vegetation changes. Overall, we found significant trend in vegetation, conforming to common succession pattern from rich to poor fen and bog vegetation. Our results suggest that responses intrinsic to vegetation, such as increased productivity or altered species interactions, may be more significant than indirect effects via local hydrology to the ecosystem response to climate warming.

Rising temperatures may endanger fragile ecosystems because their character and key species show different habitat affinities under different climates. This assumption has only been tested in limited geographical scales. In fens, one of the most endangered ecosystems in Europe, broader pH niches have been reported from cold areas and are expected for colder past periods. We used the largest European-scale vegetation database from fens to test the hypothesis that pH interacts with macroclimate temperature in forming realized niches of fen moss and vascular plant species. We calibrated the data set (29,885 plots after heterogeneity-constrained resampling) with temperature, using two macroclimate variables, and with the adjusted pH, a variable combining pH and calcium richness. We modelled temperature, pH and water level niches for one hundred species best characterizing European fens using generalized additive models and tested the interaction between pH and temperature. Fifty-five fen species showed a statistically significant interaction between pH and temperature (adj p ˂ .01). Forty-six of them (84%) showed a positive interaction manifested

Abstract. Water resources and associated ecosystems are becoming highly endangered due to ongoing global environmental changes. Spatial ecological modelling is a promising toolbox for understanding the past, present and future distribution and diversity patterns in groundwater-dependent ecosystems, such as fens, springs, streams, reed beds or wet grasslands. Still, the lack of detailed water chemistry maps prevents the use of reasonable models to be applied on continental and global scales. Being major determinants of biological composition and diversity of groundwater-dependent ecosystems, groundwater pH and calcium are of utmost importance. Here we developed an up-to-date European map of groundwater pH and Ca, based on 7577 measurements of near-surface groundwater pH and calcium distributed across Europe. In comparison to the existing European groundwater maps, we included several times more sites, especially in the regions rich in spring and fen habitats, and filled the apparent gaps in eastern and southeastern Europe. We used random forest models and regression kriging to create continuous maps of water pH and calcium at the continental scale, which is freely available also as a raster map (Hájek et al., 2020b; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4139912). Lithology had a higher importance than climate for both pH and calcium. The previously recognised latitudinal and altitudinal gradients were rediscovered with much refined regional patterns, as associated with bedrock variation. For ecological models of distribution and diversity of many terrestrial ecosystems, our new map based on field groundwater measurements is more suitable than maps of soil pH, which mirror not only bedrock chemistry but also vegetation-dependent soil processes.

We investigated recent changes in spatial patterning of fen and bog zones in five boreal aapa mire complexes (mixed peatlands with patterned fen and bog parts) in a multiproxy study. Comparison of old (1940–1970s) and new aerial images revealed decrease of flarks (wet hollows) in patterned fens by 33–63% in middle boreal and 16–42% in northern boreal sites, as lawns of bog Sphagnum mosses expanded over fens. Peat core transects across transformed areas were used to verify the remote sensing inference with stratigraphic analyses of macrofossils, hyperspectral imaging, and age-depth profiles derived from 14C AMS dating and pine pollen density. The transect data revealed that the changes observed by remote sensing during past decades originated already from the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) between 1700–1850 CE in bog zones and later in the flarks of fen zones. The average lateral expansion rate of bogs over fen zones was 0.77 m y−1 (range 0.19–1.66) as estimated by remote sensing, and 0.71 m y−1 (range 0.13–1.76) based on peat transects. The contemporary plant communities conformed to the macrofossil communities, and distinct vegetation zones were recognized as representing recently changed areas. The fen-bog transition increased the apparent carbon accumulation, but it can potentially threaten fen species and habitats. These observations indicate that rapid lateral bog expansion over aapa mires may be in progress, but more research is needed to reveal if ongoing fen-bog transitions are a commonplace phenomenon in northern mires.