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ABSTRACT:The most severe damage to forests in central Europe occurs during winter storms that are caused by Northern Hemispheric mid-latitude cyclones. These winter storms have caused several catastrophic windthrows during the past four decades. Amounts of forest storm damage are believed to be a function of both the size of the forest and the storm intensity. To test this hypothesis, the Zurich region (city and canton) was chosen because long-term climate observation data is available for the region. The relationships between forest attributes, wind speed and forest damage were explored by comparing data on forests and wind speed from 107 winters with forest damage. Storm damage was defined as the proportion of damaged forests with respect to the growing stock. The variables: daily wind run (91 years), daily maximum hourly average wind speed (107 years) and peak gust wind speed (74 years) were homogenized with respect to high wind speed and related to levels of forest damage.High maximum wind speed at the end of the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th century was followed by low maximum wind speed in the 1940s, 1960s and 1970s. Since then, maximum values have increased. Gusts (extremes of the maximum wind speed) increased from the beginning of the recordings in 1933 and peaked in the early 1990s.Forest damage due to winter storms is best correlated with peak wind speed. Gusts exceeding 40 m/s and resulting in catastrophic windthrow have increased in recent winters.

Studying a sufficiently large sample of extremes or analysing the statistics of their occurrence, including trends, is hampered by the length of the existing observation-based record. New data sets such as the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which consists of an ensemble of 56 members, significantly extend our record back in time. In this paper, we present examples of extremes of winds at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes in 20CR to illustrate challenges and opportunities for analysing extremes over a longer period than previously possible. For four representative storms from Europe and North America, 20CR provides a relatively good depiction of the synoptic-scale meteorological development, although it misses smaller scale features as well as local effects due to orography. For analysing trends of extreme winds, it is shown that the individual ensemble members should be used, rather than the ensemble mean, which appears to be biased towards lower wind speeds early in the record. For the studied locations, decadal variability and trends can best be characterised after around 1950, when the ensemble variance remains consistent. Different methodological approaches for studying changes in extreme winds are discussed. Finally, we show hemispheric maps of trends in extreme wind speeds since 1950.

This study compares the surface wind speed and forest damage data of two exceptionally severe winter storms, Vivian 1990 and Lothar 1999. The study area comprises the region that suffered damage in Switzerland. The wind speed data were derived from simulations of MeteoSwiss (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology), measurements during the storm periods and expert analyses of the data. The remotely sensed forest damage data were provided by the Federal Office for the Environment and the forest cover data by Swiss Federal Statistical Office. We compared data on the peak gust and maximum average wind speed, with data on the spatially related forest area and forest damage area, and found some clear differences in the correlations between the different wind data and forest damage. Our results point generally to the damage-causing role of near-surface gusts at maximum wind speeds during the storm. These tended to be spatially distributed on a fine scale. In only a few cases were the results statistically significant. However, these results could probably be improved with better wind data. For example, gust measurements spatially closer to forests or simulations of gusts at maximum wind speed could be produced with a spatially higher resolution.