The value of heart rate variability, ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) variables and the signal-averaged ECG in the prediction of arrhythmic events (sudden death or life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias) was assessed before hospital discharge in 416 consecutive survivors of acute myocardial infarction. During the follow-up period (range 1 to 1,112 days), there were 24 arrhythmic events and 47 deaths. The initial relation between several prognostic factors and arrhythmic events was explored with use of the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimates of survival function. Impaired heart rate variability less than 20 ms (p less than 0.0000), late potentials (p less than 0.0000), ventricular ectopic beat frequency (p less than 0.0000), repetitive ventricular forms (p less than 0.0000), left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40% (p less than 0.02) and Killip class (p less than 0.02) were identified as significant univariate predictors of arrhythmic events. When these variables were analyzed by using a stepwise Cox regression model, only impaired heart rate variability, followed by late potentials and repetitive ventricular forms remained independent predictors of arrhythmic events. The combination of impaired heart rate variability and late potentials had a sensitivity of 58%, a positive predictive accuracy of 33% and a relative risk of 18.5 for arrhythmic events and was superior to other combinations including those incorporating left ventricular function, exercise ECG, ventricular ectopic beat frequency and repetitive ventricular forms. These results suggest that a simple method of assessment based on heart rate variability and the signal-averaged ECG can select a small subgroup of survivors of myocardial infarction at high risk of future life-threatening arrhythmias and sudden death.

Automatic analysis of heart rate variability from Holter recordings may be invalidated by beat recognition errors and recording artefact, necessitating filtering and editing of the computer-recognized RR interval sequence. Two new methods for heart rate variability analysis have been developed, based on an estimation of the width of the main peak of the frequency distribution curve of the computer-recognized normal-to-normal beat sequence. These methods are independent of a low level of recognition error and artefact, thus removing the need for operator-dependent, time-consuming editing. The value of the new methods (heart variability indices 1 and 2) in identifying patients with serious events (death and symptomatic, sustained documented ventricular tachycardia) during a 6-month follow-up after acute myocardial infarction was assessed in a case-control study comparing 20 patients who had experienced such events (Group I) with 20 patients who, following admission with acute myocardial infarction, had remained free of complications for greater than 6 months after discharge (Group II). Group II was selected to match Group I with regard to age, sex, infarct site, ejection fraction, and beta-blocker treatment. Analysis of the unfiltered computer-recognized normal-to-normal interval sequence showed that heart rate variability indices 1 and 2 were significantly lower (P less than 0.005, P less than 0.002) in those who had experienced events compared with those free from complications. Two other methods of expressing heart rate variability, including the standard deviation method, in combination with four different data-filtering techniques, gave less significant distinction between those with and without events during follow-up. It is concluded that using the methods described, reduced heart rate variability in patients at risk from death or sustained ventricular tachycardia after acute myocardial infarction can be detected automatically from unfiltered Holter tape recordings even in the presence of a low level of beat recognition error and recording artefact.

Background-Disturbances of autonomic function are recognised in both the acute and convalescent phases of myocardial infarction. Recent studies have suggested that disordered autonomic function, particularly the loss of protective vagal reflexes, is associated with an increased incidence of arrhythmic deaths. The purpose of this study was to compare the value of differing prognostic indicators with measures of autonomic function and to assess the safety of arterial baroreflex testing early after infarction.Methods-As part of a prospective trial of risk stratification in postinfarction patients arterial baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, long term electrocardiographic recordings, exercise stress testing, and ejection fraction were recorded between days 7 and 10 in 122 patients with acute myocardial infarction.Results-During a one year follow up period there were 10 arrhythmic events. Baroreflex sensitivity was appreciably reduced in these patients suffering arrhythmic events (1-73 SD (1-49) v 7'83 (4-5) ms/mm hg, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4-8 to 7 3, p = 0-0001). Significant correlations were noted with age (r = -0-68, p < 0-001) but not left ventricular function. When baroreflex sensitivity was adjusted for the effects of age and ventricular function baroreflex sensitivity was still considerably reduced in the arrhythmic group (2-1 v 7-57 ms/mm Hg, p < 0-0001). Depressed baroreflex sensitivity carried the highest relative risk for arrhythmic events (23-1, 95% CI 7-7 to 69 2) and was superior to other prognostic variables including left ventricular function (10-4, 95% CI 3-3 to 32-6) and heart rate variability (10-1, 95% CI 5-6 to 18-1). No major complications were noted with baroreflex testing and in particular no patients developed ischaemic or arrhythmic symptoms during the procedure.Conclusions-Disordered autonomic function as measured by depressed baroreflex sensitivity or reduced heart rate variability was associated with an increase incidence of arrhythmic events in post-infarction patients. Baroreflex testing can be safely performed in the immediate post-infarction period.Established methods of risk stratification in post-infarction patients are based on clinical features; exercise stress testing; and the identification of complex ventricular arrhythmias, impaired left ventricular function, and multivessel coronary artery disease.l" Despite such diverse approaches many problems associated with the identification and treatment of patients at high risk of malignant arrhythmias and sudden death remain unsolved. In an attempt to improve the prediction of arrhythmic events, novel methods of risk stratification including the signal averaged electrocardiogram5 and programmed ventricular stimulation6 have been evaluated. More recently, with growing awareness of the key role of neural mechanisms in arrhythmogenesis, attention has been focussed on the prognostic value of autonomic function tests such as heart rate variability analysis and baroreflex sensitivity.7-10

The relation between heart rate variability, measured from standard 24 hour electrocardiogram recordings in patients convalescent after a myocardial infarction, and the occurrence of sudden death and spontaneous, symptomatic, sustained ventricular tachycardia were assessed in a consecutive series of 177 patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction and surviving to 7 days. In addition to the analysis of heart rate variability, the occurrence of non-sustained arrhythmias on 24 hour electrocardiographic monitoring, and the results of clinical assessment, signal averaged electrocardiography and ejection fraction were analysed and were related to outcome. During a median of 16 months of follow up (range 10-30 months) there were 17 end point events (11 (6.2%) sudden deaths) and six (3.4%) episodes of sustained ventricular tachycardia. An index of the width of the frequency distribution curve for the duration of individual RR intervals was used to measure heart rate variability. This mean (SD) index was significantly smaller in those with end point events (16.8 (8.0)) than in those without events (29.0 (11.2)). The relative risk of the occurrence of an end point event in those with a heart rate variability index less than 25 was 7.0. Multivariate analysis showed that of all the variables examined a reduced heart rate variability index was the single most powerful predictor of end point events. Measurement of heart rate variability by this simple, automated, operator-independent method provided useful information on the arrhythmic propensity in patients convalescent after myocardial infarction.

Background. Several Conclusions. This study confirms that depressed BRS identifies a subgroup at high risk for arrhythmic events after myocardial infarction and that programmed ventricular stimulation may be safely limited to this group without any loss of predictive accuracy. (Circulation 1991;83:945-952)