Previous research uses negative word counts to measure the tone of a text. We show that word lists developed for other disciplines misclassify common words in financial text. In a large sample of 10-Ks during 1994 to 2008, almost three-fourths of the words identified as negative by the widely used Harvard Dictionary are words typically not considered negative in financial contexts. We develop an alternative negative word list, along with five other word lists, that better reflect tone in financial text. We link the word lists to 10-K filing returns, trading volume, return volatility, fraud, material weakness, and unexpected earnings. * Loughran and McDonald are with University of Notre Dame. We are indebted to Paul Tetlock for comments on a previous draft. We also thank an anonymous referee, an anonymous associate editor, and seminar participants at the 2009 FMA meeting, University of Notre Dame, and York University for helpful comments. We thank Hang Li for research assistance.
In the 1980s, the average first-day return on initial public offerings (IPOs) was 7%. The average first-day return doubled to almost 15% during 1990-1998, before What explains the severe underpricing of initial public offerings in 1999-2000, when the average first-day return of 65% exceeded any level previously seen before? In this article, we address this and the related question of why IPO underpricing doubled from 7% during 1980-1989 to almost 15% during 1990-1998 before reverting to 12% during the post-bubble period of 2001-2003. Our goal is to explain low-frequency movements in underpricing (or first-day returns) that occur less often than hot and cold issue markets.We examine three hypotheses for the change in underpricing: 1) the changing risk composition hypothesis, 2) the realignment of incentives hypothesis, and 3) a new hypothesis, the changing issuer objective function hypothesis. The changing issuer objective function hypothesis has two components, the spinning hypothesis and the analyst lust hypothesis.The changing risk composition hypothesis, introduced by Ritter (1984), assumes that riskier IPOs will be underpriced by more than less-risky IPOs. This prediction follows from models where underpricing arises as an equilibrium condition to induce investors to participate in the IPO market. If the proportion of IPOs that represent risky stocks increases, there should be greater average underpricing. Risk can reflect either technological or valuation uncertainty. Although there have been some changes in the characteristics of firms going public, these changes are found to be too minor to explain much of the variation in underpricing over time if there is a stationary risk-return relation.The realignment of incentives and the changing issuer objective function hypotheses bothWe thank Hsuan
Relative to quantitative methods traditionally used in accounting and finance, textual analysis is substantially less precise. Thus, understanding the art is of equal importance to understanding the science. In this survey, we describe the nuances of the method and, as users of textual analysis, some of the tripwires in implementation. We also review the contemporary textual analysis literature and highlight areas of future research.
Companies issuing stock during 1970 to 1990, whether an initial public offer ng or a seasoned equity offering, have been poor long-run investments for investors. During the five years after the issue, investors have received average returns of only 5 percent per year for companies going public and only 7 percent per year for companies conducting a seasoned equity offer. Book-to-market effects account for only a modest portion of the low returns. An investor would have had to invest 44 percent more money in the issuers than in nonissuers of the same size to have the same wealth five years after the offering date.IN THIS ARTICLE, WE show that companies issuing stock during 1970 to 1990, whether an initial public offering (IPO) or a seasoned equity offering (SEO), significantly underperform relative to nonissuing firms for five years after the offering date. The average annual return during the five years after issuing is only 5 percent for firms conducting IPOs, and only 7 percent for firms conducting SEOs. While evidence that firms going public subsequently underperform has been documented previously, our evidence that the same pattern holds for firms conducting SEOs is new.The magnitude of this underperformance is economically important: based upon the realized returns, an investor would have had to invest 44 percent more money in the issuers than in nonissuers of the same size to have the same wealth five years after the offering date. Surprisingly, this number is the same for both IPOs and SEOs. While the difference in returns between issuers and nonissuers on which the 44 percent number is based only holds
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