It is widely recognised that coastal flood events can arise from combinations of extreme waves and sea levels. For flood risk analysis and the design of coastal structures it is therefore necessary to assess the joint probability of the occurrence of these variables. Traditional methods have involved the application of joint probability contours, defined in terms of extremes of sea conditions that can, if applied without correction factors, lead to the underestimation of flood risk and under-design of coastal structures. This paper describes the application of a robust multivariate statistical model to analyse extreme offshore waves, wind and sea levels around the coast of England. The approach described here is risk based in that it seeks to define extremes of response variables directly, rather than the joint extremes of sea conditions. The output of the statistical model comprises a Monte Carlo simulation of extreme events. These distributions of extreme events have been transformed from offshore to nearshore using a statistical emulator of a wave transformation model. The resulting nearshore extreme sea condition distributions have the potential to be applied for a range of purposes. The application is demonstrated using two structures located on the south coast of England.
Notation
Quite some new insights on wave overtopping were achieved since the first submission of the EurOtop Manual in 2007, which have now resulted in a second edition of this Manual. A major improvement has been made on the understanding of wave by wave overtopping and tolerable wave overtopping that is connected to it. Many videos are available on the overtopping website that show all kind of overtopping discharges and volumes and may give guidance for the user of the Manual. The EurOtop Neural Network and the EurOtop database are improved and extended versions of the earlier NN and CLASH database. New insights and prediction formulae have been developed for very low freeboards; for very steep slopes up to vertical walls; for run-up on steep slopes; for overtopping on storm walls on a promenade; and for overtopping on vertical walls, where overtopping has been divided in situations with and without an influencing foreshore and where the first situation may be divided in non-impulsive and impulsive overtopping.
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