Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

In future climates, greater heat tolerance at anthesis will be required in rice. The effect of high temperature at anthesis on spikelet fertility was studied on IR64 (lowland indica) and Azucena (upland japonica) at 29.6 degrees C (control), 33.7 degrees C, and 36.2 degrees C tissue temperatures. The objectives of the study were to: (i) determine the effect of temperature on flowering pattern; (ii) examine the effect of time of day of spikelet anthesis relative to a high temperature episode on spikelet fertility; and (iii) study the interactions between duration of exposure and temperature on spikelet fertility. Plants were grown at 30/24 degrees C day/night temperature in a greenhouse and transferred to growth cabinets for the temperature treatments. Individual spikelets were marked with paint to relate fertility to the time of exposure to different temperatures and durations. In both genotypes the pattern of flowering was similar, and peak anthesis occurred between 10.30 h and 11.30 h at 29.2 degrees C, and about 45 min earlier at 36.2 degrees C. In IR64, high temperature increased the number of spikelets reaching anthesis, whereas in Azucena numbers were reduced. In both genotypesor=33.7 degrees C at anthesis caused sterility. In IR64, there was no interaction between temperature and duration of exposure, and spikelet fertility was reduced by about 7% per degrees C>29.6 degrees C. In Azucena there was a significant interaction and spikelet fertility was reduced by 2.4% degrees Cd-1 above a threshold of 33 degrees C. Marking individual spikelets is an effective method to phenotype genotypes and lines for heat tolerance that removes any apparent tolerance due to temporal escape.

Episodes of high temperature at anthesis, which in rice is the most sensitive stage to temperature, are expected to occur more frequently in future climates. The morphology of the reproductive organs and pollen number, and changes in anther protein expression, were studied in response to high temperature at anthesis in three rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes. Plants were exposed to 6 h of high (38 °C) and control (29 °C) temperature at anthesis and spikelets collected for morphological and proteomic analysis. Moroberekan was the most heat-sensitive genotype (18% spikelet fertility at 38 °C), while IR64 (48%) and N22 (71%) were moderately and highly heat tolerant, respectively. There were significant differences among the genotypes in anther length and width, apical and basal pore lengths, apical pore area, and stigma and pistil length. Temperature also affected some of these traits, increasing anther pore size and reducing stigma length. Nonetheless, variation in the number of pollen on the stigma could not be related to measured morphological traits. Variation in spikelet fertility was highly correlated (r=0.97, n=6) with the proportion of spikelets with ≥20 germinated pollen grains on the stigma. A 2D-gel electrophoresis showed 46 protein spots changing in abundance, of which 13 differentially expressed protein spots were analysed by MS/MALDI-TOF. A cold and a heat shock protein were found significantly up-regulated in N22, and this may have contributed to the greater heat tolerance of N22. The role of differentially expressed proteins and morphology during anther dehiscence and pollination in shaping heat tolerance and susceptibility is discussed.

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is −8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of −17% (wheat), −5% (maize), −15% (sorghum) and −10% (millet) and across South Asia of −16% (maize) and −11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of >3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.