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Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Many boreal tree stands are neither clearly even-aged nor clearly uneven-aged. The stands may undergo a series of stages, during which an even-aged stand is transformed into two-storied mixed stand, and finally to multistoried or uneven-aged stand structure. The species composition often changes during the succession of stand stages. This study developed models for stand dynamics that can be used in different stand structures and species compositions. The model set consists of species-specific individual-tree diameter increment and survival models, and models for ingrowth. Separate models were developed for Scots pine, Norway spruce, and hardwood species. The models were used in a growth simulator, to give illustrative examples on species influences and stand dynamics. Methods to simulate residual variation around diameter increment and ingrowth models are also presented. The results suggest that mixed stands are more productive than one-species stands. Spruce in particular benefits from an admixture of other species. Mixed species improve diameter increment, decrease mortality, and increase ingrowth. Pine is a more beneficial admixture than birch. Simulations showed that uneven-aged management of spruce forests is sustainable and productive, and even-aged conifer stands growing on medium sites can be converted into uneven-aged mixed stands by a series of strong high thinnings.

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