The coastal waters off the southeastern United States (SEUS) are a primary wintering ground for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), used by calving females along with other adult and juvenile whales. Management actions implemented in this area for the recovery of the right whale population rely on accurate habitat characterization and the ability to predict whale distribution over time. We developed a temporally dynamic habitat model to predict wintering right whale distribution in the SEUS using a generalized additive model framework and aerial survey data from 2003/2004 through 2012/2013. We built upon previous habitat models for right whales in the SEUS and include data from new aerial surveys that extend the spatial coverage of the analysis, particularly in the northern portion of this wintering ground. We summarized whale sightings, survey effort corrected for probability of whale detection, and environmental data at a semimonthly resolution. Consistent with previous studies, sea surface temperature (SST), water depth, and survey year were significant predictors of right whale relative abundance. Additionally, distance to shore, distance to the 22°C SST isotherm, and an interaction between time of year and latitude (to account for the latitudinal migration of whales) were also selected in the analysis presented here. Predictions from the model revealed that the location of preferred habitat differs within and between years in correspondence with variation in environmental conditions. Although cow-calf pairs were rarely sighted in the company of other whales, there was minimal evidence that the preferred habitat of cow-calf pairs was different than that of whale groups without calves at the scale of this study. The results of this updated habitat model can be used to inform management decisions for a migratory species in a dynamic oceanic environment.

Summary1. Speed regulations of watercraft in protected areas are designed to reduce lethal collisions with wildlife but can have economic consequences. We present a quantitative framework for investigating the risk of deadly collisions between boats and wildlife. 2. We apply encounter rate theory to demonstrate how marine mammal-boat encounter rate can be used to predict the expected number of deaths associated with management scenarios. We illustrate our approach with management scenarios for two endangered species: the Florida manatee Trichechus manatus latirostris and the North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis. We used a Monte Carlo simulation approach to demonstrate the uncertainty that is associated with our estimate of relative mortality. 3. We show that encounter rate increased with vessel speed but that the expected number of encounters varies depending on the boating activities considered. For instance, in a scenario involving manatees and boating activities such as water skiing, the expected number of encounters in a given area (in a fixed time interval) increased with vessel speed. In another scenario in which a vessel made a transit of fixed length, the expected number of encounters decreases slightly with boat speed. In both cases, the expected number of encounters increased with distanced travelled by the boat. For whales, we found a slight reduction (~0Á1%) in the number of encounters under a scenario where speed is unregulated; this reduction, however, is negligible, and overall expected relative mortality was~30% lower under the scenario with speed regulation. The probability of avoidance by the animal or vessel was set to 0 because of lack of data, but we explored the importance of this parameter on the model predictions. In fact, expected relative mortality under speed regulations decreases even further when the probability of avoidance is a decreasing function of vessel speed. 4. By applying encounter rate theory to the case of boat collisions with marine mammals, we gained new insights about encounter processes between wildlife and watercraft. Our work emphasizes the importance of considering uncertainty when estimating wildlife mortality. Finally, our findings are relevant to other systems and ecological processes involving the encounter between moving agents.

a b s t r a c tWe studied recovery of 21 perennial plant species along a severely disturbed aqueduct corridor in a Larrea tridentata-Ambrosia dumosa plant alliance in the Mojave Desert 36 years after construction. The 97-m wide corridor contained a central dirt road and buried aqueduct pipeline. We established transects at 0 m (road verge), 20 m and 40 m into the disturbance corridor, and at 100 m in undisturbed habitat (the control). Although total numbers of shrubs per transect did not vary significantly with distance from the verge, canopy cover of shrubs, species richness, and species diversity were higher in the control than at the verge and other distances. Canopy cover of common shrubs (Ericameria nauseosa, Ambrosia salsola, A. dumosa, L. tridentata, Grayia spinosa) and perennial grasses (Elymus elymoides, Poa secunda) also varied significantly by location. Discriminant analysis clearly separated the four distances based on plant composition. Patterns of recovery were bidirectional: secondary succession from the control into the disturbance corridor and inhibition from the verge in the direction of the control. Time estimated for species composition to resemble the control is dependent on location within the disturbance corridor and could be centuries at the road verge. Our findings have applications to other deserts.Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Animal movement plays a fundamental role in the ecology of migratory species, and understanding migration patterns is required for effective management. To evaluate intrinsic and environmental factors associated with probabilities of endangered North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis migrating to a wintering ground off the southeastern United States (SEUS), we applied a multistate temporary emigration capture-recapture model to 22 years of photo-identification data. Migration probabilities for juveniles were generally higher yet more variable than those for adults, and non-calving adult females were the least likely group to migrate. The highest migration probabilities for juveniles and adult males coincided with years of relatively high calving rates, following years of higher prey availability in a fall feeding ground. Right whale migration to the SEUS can be classified as condition-dependent partial migration, which includes skipped breeding partial migration for reproductive females, and is likely influenced by tradeoffs among ecological factors such as reproductive costs and foraging opportunities that vary across individuals and time. The high variability in migration reported in this study provides insight into the ecological drivers of migration but presents challenges to right whale monitoring and conservation strategies.