In this paper we develop and estimate a model to explain variations in immigration to the United States by source country since the early 1970s. The explanatory variables include ratios to the United States of source country income and education as well as relative inequality. In addition, we incorporate the stock of previous immigrants and a variety of variables representing different dimensions of the immigration quotas set by policy. We use the results to shed light on the impact of policy by simulating the effects of the key changes in immigration policy since the late 1970s. We also examine the factors that influenced the composition of U.S. immigration by source region over the entire period.

In this paper, we examine the determinants of educational selectivity in immigration using immigrant stock data for 70 source countries and 21 OECD destination countries, as observed in the year 2000/2001. We develop a variant of the Roy model to estimate the determinants of educational selectivity. Two key findings emerge. First, the effect of the skill premium, which is at the core of the Roy model, can be observed only after we take into account the poverty constraints operating in the source countries. Second, cultural similarities, colonial legacies, and physical distance are often more important determinants of educational selectivity than wage incentives or selective immigration policy.

In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with a rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now reversed. This article examines what happened and why. It surveys the trends in asylum seeking and the literature that this has generated. It provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the present. The key findings are that violence and terror can account for much of the variation and that, while tougher policies did have a deterrent effect, they account for only about a third of the decline in applications since 2001. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.