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SUMMARYMany species experience large fluctuations in food availability and depend on energy from fat and protein stores for survival, reproduction and growth. Body condition and, more specifically, energy stores thus constitute key variables in the life history of many species. Several indices exist to quantify body condition but none can provide the amount of stored energy. To estimate energy stores in mammals, we propose a body composition model that differentiates between structure and storage of an animal. We develop and parameterize the model specifically for polar bears (Ursus maritimus Phipps) but all concepts are general and the model could be easily adapted to other mammals. The model provides predictive equations to estimate structural mass, storage mass and storage energy from an appropriately chosen measure of body length and total body mass. The model also provides a means to estimate basal metabolic rates from body length and consecutive measurements of total body mass. Model estimates of body composition, structural mass, storage mass and energy density of 970 polar bears from Hudson Bay were consistent with the life history and physiology of polar bears. Metabolic rate estimates of fasting adult males derived from the body composition model corresponded closely to theoretically expected and experimentally measured metabolic rates. Our method is simple, noninvasive and provides considerably more information on the energetic status of individuals than currently available methods.

We review the most comprehensive metabolic theory of life existing to date. A special focus is given to the thermodynamic roots of this theory and to implications that the laws of physics-such as the conservation of mass and energy-have on all life. Both the theoretical foundations and biological applications are covered. Hitherto, the foundations were more accessible to physicists or mathematicians, and the applications to biologists, causing a dichotomy in what always should have been a single body of work. To bridge the gap between the two aspects of the same theory, we (i) adhere to the theoretical formalism, (ii) try to minimize the amount of information that a reader needs to process, but also (iii) invoke examples from biology to motivate the introduction of new concepts and to justify the assumptions made, and (iv) show how the careful formalism of the general theory enables modular, self-consistent extensions that capture important features of the species and the problem in question. Perhaps the most difficult among the introduced concepts, the utilization (or mobilization) energy flow, is given particular attention in the form of an original and considerably simplified derivation. Specific examples illustrate a range of possible applications-from energy budgets of individual organisms, to population dynamics, to ecotoxicology.

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.