This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100-and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.

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Three-finger toxins (3FTXs) are a functionally diverse family of toxins, apparently unique to venoms of caenophidian snakes. Although the ancestral function of 3FTXs is antagonism of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, redundancy conferred by the accumulation of duplicate genes has facilitated extensive neofunctionalization, such that derived members of the family interact with a range of targets. 3FTXs are members of the LY6/UPAR family, but their non-toxin ancestor remains unknown. Combining traditional phylogenetic approaches, manual synteny analysis, and machine learning techniques (including AlphaFold2 and ProtT5), we have reconstructed a detailed evolutionary history of 3FTXs. We identify their immediate ancestor as a non-secretory LY6, unique to squamate reptiles, and propose that changes in molecular ecology resulting from loss of a membrane-anchoring domain and changes in gene expression, paved the way for the evolution of one of the most important families of snake toxins.