This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961-90) and future (2071-2100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves -Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first century, countries in central Europe will experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in southern Europe. The intensity of extreme temperatures increases more rapidly than the intensity of more moderate temperatures over the continental interior due to increases in temperature variability. Precipitation -Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms -Extreme wind speeds increase between 45°N and 55°N, except over and south of the Alps, and become more north-westerly than cuurently. These changes are associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure, leading to more North Sea storms and a corresponding increase in storm surges along coastal regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model, and the detailed patterns of these changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model. In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability between different emissions scenarios.

Abstract. This study presents the application of a costeffective, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to investigate calving dynamics at a major marine-terminating outlet glacier draining the western sector of the Greenland ice sheet. The UAV was flown over Store Glacier on three sorties during summer 2013 and acquired over 2000 overlapping, geotagged images of the calving front at an ∼ 40 cm ground sampling distance. Stereo-photogrammetry applied to these images enabled the extraction of high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) with vertical accuracies of ± 1.9 m which were used to quantify glaciological processes from early July to late August 2013. The central zone of the calving front advanced by ∼ 500 m, whilst the lateral margins remained stable. The orientation of crevasses and the surface velocity field derived from feature tracking indicates that lateral drag is the primary resistive force and that ice flow varies across the calving front from 2.5 m d −1 at the margins to in excess of 16 m d −1 at the centreline. Ice flux through the calving front is 3.8 × 10 7 m 3 d −1 , equivalent to 13.9 Gt a −1 and comparable to flux-gate estimates of Store Glacier's annual discharge. Water-filled crevasses were present throughout the observation period but covered a limited area of between 0.025 and 0.24 % of the terminus and did not appear to exert any significant control over fracture or calving. We conclude that the use of repeat UAV surveys coupled with the processing techniques outlined in this paper have great potential for elucidating the complex frontal dynamics that characterise large calving outlet glaciers.

Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modeling, and global distributions of working populations to estimate the impact of 2 climate scenarios on future labor productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labor productivity, under the simple assumption of no specific adaptation. By the 2080s, the greatest absolute losses of population-based labor work capacity (in the range 11% to 27%) are seen under the A2 scenario in Southeast Asia, Andean and Central America, and the Caribbean. Increased occupational heat exposure due to climate change may significantly impact on labor productivity and costs unless preventive measures are implemented. Workers may need to work longer hours, or more workers may be required, to achieve the same output and there will be economic costs of lost production and/or occupational health interventions against heat exposures.

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO2 concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO2 concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios

Previous reports have suggested a link between increased storminess in the North Atlantic during recent years with a period of time during which the North Atlantic Oscillation Index has been strongly positive. New analyses of late nineteenth-century gale-day data for meteorological stations in northern Scotland and western Ireland indicate that the relatively high storminess that characterized this period was associated with monthly NAO Index values that rarely exceeded +2 and, on several occasions, were strongly negative. It is speculated that this difference may reflect the influence of an expanded sea-ice cover in the Greenland Sea that caused a considerable southward displacement of the North Atlantic storm track during the late nineteenth century. Such changes imply that the polar atmospheric and oceanic fronts in the North Atlantic were displaced southward during the late nineteenth century.