The European Commission proposed to increase the greenhouse gas emission reduction target to at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 level. The aim of this article is to visualise the EU natural gas consumption trend until 2023 regarding to energy transformation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method) is used in this study. The analysis is based on historical volumes of natural gas consumed in 2016–2020 in 28 European Union countries. An effort can be made to state that the next coming months will have a slight increase in natural gas consumption, however, the growth will depend on the pace of the economies and the pace of the energy transition.
As is well known, gas consumption and its prices depends on many factors including local factors, geopolitics, the development of the gas transport infrastructure (including liquefied natural gas), distribution and extraction costs-for example unconventional deposits (e.g. shale gas). The global gas market depends primarily on the economic relations between large gas producers and importers e.g. US-China, Middle East/US-Russia etc. (Olayele 2015). In individual countries, the price is also dependent on concluded contracts and delivery directions. Also it should be mentioned that the gas consumption depends on weather conditions, type of day of the year (holiday, business day, month) and economic situation (Kosowski et. al 2010). What impact has the appearance of the COVID-19 epidemic had on the European natural gas market? The analyzed research problem concerned, in particular, two areas: gas consumption and its prices, in selected European countries in the aspect of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic with reference to historical data from 2016-2019. Seven European countries belonging to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) were selected, for which the highest inland consumption of natural gas by country was observed in the last year. The countries are presented in order or consumption: Germany,
The transmission of natural gas is a key element of the Polish energy system. The published data of the Polish distribution system operators and the transmission system operator on the volume of gaseous fuel transmitted indicate a growing trend in the consumption of energy produced from natural gas. In connection with the energy transformation, switching energy generation sources from hard coal to natural gas in Poland, it is important for transmission operators to know the future demand for gaseous fuel. The aim of the article is to attempt to develop an econometric model related to the consumption of gaseous fuel by Polish entrepreneurs. The knowledge therein may be useful for making business decisions related to the possible expansion of the transmission system, and thus investing financial resources for this purpose. This knowledge will also provide quantitative information related to the interest in gaseous fuel among industrial consumers and the analysis of the trend of natural gas consumption in Poland in the aspect of energy transition. The intention of the publication was to determine the macroeconomic indicators that strongly affect natural gas consumption by the Polish industry and the quantitative growth of consumption depending on changes in these indicators. The results showed that the highest correlation of the growth of natural gas consumption is related to the production of chemistry, the chemical industry, and the power industry.
There are many IT tools available on the market that carry out various types of forecasts in the gas industry. Programming evolves with the availability and capability of computers. IT tools support the user in engineering calculations, but also present the obtained results in an interesting visualization, e.g. in the form of interactive charts. The software can support making business decisions, which, in turn, can be used as business intelligence. In the era of digitization, huge metadata of measurements are created, so conducting data analyzes in the energy sector is very common. Moreover, rapidly evolving artificial intelligence creates new opportunities. The article presents a sample analysis of calculations using RStudio, an integrated development environment for the R language, a programming language for statistical calculations and graphics. The aim of the article is to present the possibility of using R language software to make a forecast and to determine the quality of forecasts. The article aims to present the possibility of making forecasts based on mathematical models available in R packages and the possibilities offered by the forecasting platform to readers. The article presents the U.S. market and has a particular focus on Natural Gas Residential Consumption in Pennsylvania (publicly available data from the U.S. Energy Information Administra-tion). This dataset represents the monthly consumption of natural gas between 2015 and 2020. Forecasts were presented over a span of 12 months.
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