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In this large retrospective study we found that our score was superior to dichotomous triage based on serum potassium level in assessing which hypothermic patients in cardiac arrest would benefit from extracorporeal life support. External validation of our findings is required.

Aims: The HOPE score, based on covariates available at hospital admission, predicts the probability of inhospital survival after extracorporeal life support (ECLS) rewarming of a given hypothermic cardiac arrest patient with accidental hypothermia. Our goal was to externally validate the HOPE score. Methods: We included consecutive hypothermic arrested patients who underwent rewarming with ECLS. The sample comprised 122 patients. The six independent predictors of survival included in the HOPE score were collected for each patient: age, sex, mechanism of hypothermia, core temperature at admission, serum potassium level at admission and duration of CPR. The primary outcome parameter was survival to hospital discharge. Results: Overall, 51 of the 122 included patients survived, resulting in an empirical (global) probability of survival of 42% (95% CI=[33-51%]). This was close to the average HOPE survival probability of 38% calculated for patients from the validation cohort, while the Hosmer-Lemeshow test comparing empirical and HOPE (i.e. estimated) probabilities of survival was not significant (p=0.08), suggesting good calibration. The corresponding area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.825 (95% CI=[0.753-0.897]), confirming the excellent discrimination of the model. The negative predictive value of a HOPE score cutoff of <0.10 was excellent (97%). Conclusions: This study provides the first external validation of the HOPE score reaching good calibration and excellent discrimination. Clinically, the prediction of the HOPE score remains accurate in the validation sample. The HOPE score may replace serum potassium in the future as the triage tool when considering ECLS rewarming of a hypothermic cardiac arrest victim.

Accidental hypothermia is an unintentional drop of core temperature below 35 °C. Annually, thousands die of primary hypothermia and an unknown number die of secondary hypothermia worldwide. Hypothermia can be expected in emergency patients in the prehospital phase. Injured and intoxicated patients cool quickly even in subtropical regions. Preventive measures are important to avoid hypothermia or cooling in ill or injured patients. Diagnosis and assessment of the risk of cardiac arrest are based on clinical signs and core temperature measurement when available. Hypothermic patients with risk factors for imminent cardiac arrest (temperature < 30 °C in young and healthy patients and <32 °C in elderly persons, or patients with multiple comorbidities), ventricular dysrhythmias, or systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg) and hypothermic patients who are already in cardiac arrest, should be transferred directly to an extracorporeal life support (ECLS) centre. If a hypothermic patient arrests, continuous cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) should be performed. In hypothermic patients, the chances of survival and good neurological outcome are higher than for normothermic patients for witnessed, unwitnessed and asystolic cardiac arrest. Mechanical CPR devices should be used for prolonged rescue, if available. In severely hypothermic patients in cardiac arrest, if continuous or mechanical CPR is not possible, intermittent CPR should be used. Rewarming can be accomplished by passive and active techniques. Most often, passive and active external techniques are used. Only in patients with refractory hypothermia or cardiac arrest are internal rewarming techniques required. ECLS rewarming should be performed with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). A post-resuscitation care bundle should complement treatment.

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