In the last three decades forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises has been an important and difficult problem, used as an impulse for many research projects (Ribeiro et al. 2012). At present many methods of bankruptcy prediction are available. In view of the specific character of economic activity in individual sectors, specialised methods adapted to a given branch of industry are being used increasingly often. For this reason an important scientific problem is related with the indication of an appropriate model or group of models to prepare forecasts for a given branch of industry. Thus research has been conducted to select an appropriate model of Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), best adapted to forecasting changes in the wood industry. This study analyses 10 prediction models popular in Poland. Effectiveness of the model proposed by Jagiełło, developed for all industrial enterprises, may be labelled accidental. That model is not adapted to predict financial changes in wood sector companies in Poland.The generally known Altman model showed the greatest effectiveness in the identification of enterprises at risk of bankruptcy. However, that model was burdened with one of the greatest errors in the classification of healthy enterprises as sick. The best effectiveness in the identification of enterprises not threatened with bankruptcy was found for forecasts prepared using the Prusak 2 model. However, forecasts based on those models were characterised by erroneous classification of sick companies as healthy. The model best fit to predict the financial situation of Polish wood sector companies was the Poznań model Pz = 3.562 · X 1 + 1.588 · X 2 + 4.288 · X 3 + 6.719 · X 4 ) -2.368 where: X 1 -net income/total assets; X 2 -(current assets -stock)/current liabilities; X 3 -fixed capital/total assets X 4 -income from sales/sales revenue).

The assessment of a company’s financial condition is an effective tool, which supports the management system. Nowadays a number of models are available, most often multi-branch ones, which are able to predict the financial situation of an enterprise. Models solely intended for just one line of business are a rarity. As far as the wood sector is concerned, no homogenous model suited to the sector has been created. The article aims to present the final stage of research dealing with predicting bankruptcy in the wood sector. The bankruptcy prediction model presented in this paper, called the model for forecasting bankruptcy of wood enterprises (FMWE), has been developed specifically for the wood sector. The process of model construction was presented and the correctness of forecasts built with the use of FMWE was verified. The predictions were based on 1-, 2- or 3-year periods. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the FMWE projections was compared to the 10 most popular bankruptcy prediction models used in Poland. It was observed that in comparison with other prediction models, FMWE predictions for this particular industry indicate greater credibility, up to 90%, for 1-year and 2-year predictions.

At present, many early warning systems (EWS) are available. Most EWSs have been constructed based on data coming from various branches of economy. As a result, the effectiveness of these models in specific sectors of the national economy is frequently insufficient. There are no models dedicated to a specific branch, particularly the wood industry. Based on the Polish homogenous financial data supplied by the wood industry, it was decided to identify respective indexes, which may be used to construct a sector prediction model for bankruptcy in the wood industry. This study presents an analysis of indexes applied in 10 most popular EWSs used in Poland. In the course of the research process, a total of 5 financial ratios (FRs) were selected as best fitting to the investigated branch of economy. These included: profit from sales/balance sheet total, total income/mean annual total assets, operating costs/current liabilities, (operating profit -depreciation)/sales of products and equity capital/total debt.