The VaR method allows for risk measurements and estimations of the highest expected loss on a portfolio at an assumed confidence level over a specified time horizon. The most important assumption affecting the calculation method is that price changes in financial markets follow a normal distribution. Findings: It appears that by appropriately re-defining the concepts of assets and portfolio rates of return, we can describe the volatility in the numbers of deaths caused by Covid-19. We also confirmed using the Shapiro-Wilk and Skewness and Kurtosis tests that the rates of return distribution for the death numbers follow a normal distribution. Practical Implications: The VaR method allows to estimate the number of deaths based on current trends which can be utilised to better manage available resources in order to reduce casualties. We use the data regarding the number of deaths in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries as a case study to test the effectiveness and accuracy of the VaR method in a different, non-financial domain. Originality/Value: The theory we used in this paper is currently mainly applied to financial investments. We use this theory to describe social phenomenon which is the number of deaths, our approach has not been seen in the literature so far.

Purpose:The paper seeks to find the related variety of smart specialization strategies in European regions. Design/Methodology/Approach: We apply the product space methodology of Hidalgo et al. (2007) to identify the most frequent occurrences of specialization in industry, scientific or policy domains in regional innovation strategies and construct a matrix of their cooccurrences. Findings: Although to some extent regions utilize unrelated variety, i.e., homogeneous industry sections, scientific or policy domains, most regions benefit from cross-linkages between sections and domains (related variety). This latter variety may be grouped into two interconnected domains: (1) quality of life and well-being, including high-tech products that facilitate various spheres of social and economic life; (2) sustainable urban development with smart cities, green transportation, and energy conservation and effectiveness. Practical Implications: Tracing the related variety of smart specializations may facilitate an understanding of the localization and urbanization economies that benefit regions and the mechanisms behind entrepreneurial discovery processes. Moreover, the results can show the extent to which regions can differentiate themselves from others. Originality/Value: The product space methodology has not been applied to smart specializations to date. Based on this methodology and network analysis, the study provides the most common related varieties present in regional strategy documents, which can be analyzed in more detail in future research.