After a major radioactive incident, accurate dose reconstruction is important for evaluating health risks and appropriate radiation protection policies. After the 2011 Japan Fukushima nuclear incident, we assessed the level of agreement between the modeled and directly measured dose and estimated the uncertainties. The study population comprised 520 school children from Minamisoma city, located 20 km north of the nuclear plant. The annual dose 18–30 months after the incident was assessed using two approaches: estimation using the model proposed by the Japanese government and direct measurement by radiation dosemeters. The ratio of the average of modeled and measured doses was 3.0 (standard deviation (SD): 2.0). The reduction coefficient, an index for radiation attenuation properties, was 0.3 (SD: 0.1) on average, whereas the value used in the government model was 0.6. After adjusting for covariates, the coefficient had a significant negative correlation with the air dose rate in the dwelling location (p < 0.001), indicating that stronger building shielding effects are valuable in areas with higher air contamination levels. The present study demonstrated that some overestimation may have been related to uncertainties in radiation reduction effects, and that the air contamination level might provide a more important indicator of these effects.
Resettlement to their radiation-contaminated hometown could be an option for people displaced at the time of a nuclear disaster; however, little information is available on the safety implications of these resettlement programs. Kawauchi village, located 12–30 km southwest of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, was one of the 11 municipalities where mandatory evacuation was ordered by the central government. This village was also the first municipality to organize the return of the villagers. To assess the validity of the Kawauchi villagers’ resettlement program, the levels of internal Cesium (Cs) exposures were comparatively measured in returnees, commuters, and non-returnees among the Kawauchi villagers using a whole body counter. Of 149 individuals, 5 villagers had traceable levels of Cs exposure; the median detected level was 333 Bq/body (range, 309–1050 Bq/kg), and 5.3 Bq/kg (range, 5.1–18.2 Bq/kg). Median annual effective doses of villagers with traceable Cs were 1.1 x 10-2 mSv/y (range, 1.0 x 10-2-4.1 x 10-2 mSv/y). Although returnees had higher chances of consuming locally produced vegetables, Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test showed that their level of internal radiation exposure was not significantly higher than that in the other 2 groups (p=0.643). The present findings in Kawauchi village imply that it is possible to maintain internal radiation exposure at very low levels even in a highly radiation-contaminated region at the time of a nuclear disaster. Moreover, the risks for internal radiation exposure could be limited with a strict food control intervention after resettlement to the radiation-contaminated village. It is crucial to establish an adequate number of radio-contaminated testing sites within the village, to provide immediate test result feedback to the villagers, and to provide education regarding the importance of re-testing in reducing the risk of high internal radiation exposure.
IntroductionDemographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City—located 14–38 km north of the nuclear plant—in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas.Materials and methodsWe extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divisions of the city. To investigate factors associated with the population remaining in place after the disaster, a probit regression model was employed, taking into account sex, age, pre-disaster dwelling area, and household composition.ResultsThe overall population decline in Minamisoma City peaked 11 days after the disaster, when the population reached 7,107 people—11% of the pre-disaster level. The remaining population levels differed by area: 1.1% for mandatory evacuation zone, 12.5% for indoor sheltering zone, and 12.6% for other areas of the city. Based on multiple regression analyses, higher odds for remaining in place were observed among men (odds ratio 1.72 [95% confidence intervals 1.64–1.85]) than women; among people aged 40–64 years (1.40 [1.24–1.58]) than those aged 75 years or older; and among those living with the elderly, aged 70 years or older (1.18 [1.09–1.27]) or those living alone (1.71 [1.50–1.94]) than among those who were not.DiscussionDespite the evacuation order, some residents of mandatory evacuation zones remained in place, signaling the need for preparation to respond to their post-disaster needs. Indoor sheltering instructions may have accelerated voluntary evacuation, and this demonstrates the need for preventing potentially disorganized evacuation in future nuclear events.
ObjectiveTo assess the influence of the 3.11 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident) on the emergency medical service (EMS) system in Fukushima.MethodsTotal EMS time (from EMS call to arrival at a hospital) was assessed in the EMS system of Soma district, located 10–40 km north of the nuclear plant, from 11 March to 31 December 2011. We defined the affected period as when total EMS time was significantly extended after the disasters compared with the historical control data from 1 January 2009 to 10 March 2011. To identify risk factors associated with the extension of total EMS time after the disasters, we investigated trends in 3 time segments of total EMS time; response time, defined as time from an EMS call to arrival at the location, on-scene time, defined as time from arrival at the location to departure, and transport time, defined as time from departure from the location to arrival at a hospital.ResultsFor the affected period from week 0 to week 11, the median total EMS time was 36 (IQR 27–52) minutes, while that in the predisaster control period was 31 (IQR 24–40) min. The percentage of transports exceeding 60 min in total EMS time increased from 8.2% (584/7087) in the control period to 22.2% (151/679) in the affected period. Among the 3 time segments, there was the most change in transport time (standardised mean difference: 0.41 vs 0.13–0.17).ConclusionsEMS transport was significantly delayed for ∼3 months, from week 1 to 11 after the 3.11 triple disaster. This delay may be attributed to malfunctioning emergency hospitals after the triple disaster.
After radioactive incidents, the exposure risk in daily activities among children is a major public concern. However, there are limited methods available for evaluation of this risk, which is essential to future health risk management. To this end, this study assessed the relationship between behavioral patterns of school children and radiation exposure for a period of 18–20 months following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident. The assessed population comprised 520 school children from Minamisoma city, located 20 km north of the nuclear plant. Data for the doses were obtained using individual dosimeters and from results of a behavior survey administered by the City Office. The mean value of the doses in the study period was 0.34 mSv, with a standard deviation of 0.14 mSv, indicating an annual dose of ∼1.36 mSv, which includes doses from natural sources. Our results showed that behavior with respect to outdoor activities had no statistically significant relationship to the dose. A 0.1 μSv/h increase in the air dose rate at home was associated with a 10% increase in the dose; however, a 0.01 μSv/h increase in the air dose rate on the school grounds was associated with a 2% increase in the dose. This study indicates that the air contamination levels at the places where children spend most of their day are the significant predictors of the dose, as opposed to the levels at those outdoor locations in which short periods of time spent.
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