Accurately predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth based on remote images is of critical significance in the study of space weather. In this paper, we make a statistical study of 21 Earth directed CMEs, exploring in particular the relationship between CME initial speeds and transit times. The initial speed of a CME is obtained by fitting the CME with the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model and is thus free of projection effects. We then use the drag force model to fit results of the transit time versus the initial speed. By adopting different drag regimes, i.e., the viscous, aerodynamics, and hybrid regimes, we get similar results, with the least mean estimation error of the hybrid model of 12.9 hours. CMEs with a propagation angle (the angle between the propagation direction and the Sun-Earth line) larger than its half angular width arrive at the Earth with an angular deviation caused by factors other than the radial solar wind drag. The drag force model cannot be well applied to such events. If we exclude these events in the sample, the prediction accuracy can be improved, i.e., the estimation error reduces to 6.8 hours. This work suggests that it is viable to predict the arrival time of CMEs at the Earth based on the initial parameters with a fairly good accuracy. Thus, it provides a method of space weather forecast of 1-5 days following the occurrence of CMEs.

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For the first time, we simulate the detailed spectral line emission from a solar active region (AR) with the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). We select an AR appearing near disk center on 2018 July 13 and use the National Solar Observatory’s Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager synoptic magnetogram to specify the magnetic field at the model’s inner boundary. To resolve small-scale magnetic features, we apply adaptive mesh refinement with a horizontal spatial resolution of 0°.35 (4.5 Mm), four times higher than the background corona. We then apply the SPECTRUM code, using CHIANTI spectral emissivities, to calculate spectral lines forming at temperatures ranging from 0.5 to 3 MK. Comparisons are made between the simulated line intensities and those observed by Hinode/Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer where we find close agreement across a wide range of loop sizes and temperatures (about 20% relative error for both the loop top and footpoints at a temperature of about 1.5 MK). We also simulate and compare Doppler velocities and find that simulated flow patterns are of comparable magnitude to what is observed. Our results demonstrate the broad applicability of the low-frequency AWSoM for explaining the heating of coronal loops.

TianQin is a proposed space-borne gravitational-wave (GW) observatory composed of three identical satellites orbiting around the geocenter with a radius of 105 km. It aims at detecting GWs in the frequency range of 0.1 mHz–1 Hz. The detection of GW relies on the high-precision measurement of optical path length at the 10−12 m level. The dispersion of space plasma can lead to the optical path difference (OPD, Δl) along the propagation of laser beams between any pair of satellites. Here, we study the OPD noises for TianQin. The Space Weather Modeling Framework is used to simulate the interaction between the Earth magnetosphere and solar wind. From the simulations, we extract the magnetic field and plasma parameters on the orbits of TianQin at four relative positions of the satellite constellation in the Earth magnetosphere. We calculate the OPD noise for single link, Michelson combination, and Time-Delay Interferometry (TDI) combinations (α and X). For single link and Michelson interferometer, the maxima of ∣Δl∣ are on the order of 1 pm. For the TDI combinations, these can be suppressed to about 0.004 and 0.008 pm for α and X. The OPD noise of the Michelson combination is colored in the concerned frequency range; while the ones for the TDI combinations are approximately white. Furthermore, we calculate the ratio of the equivalent strain of the OPD noise to that of TQ, and find that the OPD noises for the TDI combinations can be neglected in the most sensitive frequency range of TQ.

Plasma diagnostics and elemental abundance measurements are crucial to help us understand the formation and dynamics of the solar wind. Here we use a theoretical solar wind model to study the effect of nonequilibrium ionization (NEI) on plasma diagnostic techniques applied to line intensities emitted by the fast solar wind. We find that NEI almost always changes the spectral line intensities with up to 120% difference for the lighter elements and for higher charge states of Fe even below 1.5 solar radii (R s ). The measured plasma density, temperature, and differential emission measure are only slightly affected by NEI. However, NEI significantly affects the first-ionization potential (FIP) bias and abundance ratio measurements, producing an error of up to a factor 4 at 1.5 R s for the Mg-to-Ne, Fe-to-S, and Ar-to-Fe ratios when EI is assumed. We conclude that it is very important to consider the NEI effect when spectral line intensities are synthesized and the FIP bias and elemental abundance are measured.