Marine transportation is considered to be one of the most important aspects of global transportation services. Due to the increase in marine transportation, there are significant impacts on the marine environment. One of the possible measures for mitigation of the environmental impact could be switching to environmentally friendly fuel. However, the alternative fuel selection process is considered to be a problem due to various criteria to be considered and stakeholders that should be involved in the selection process. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of multicriteria analysis as a decision-support tool for the alternative marine fuel selection problem in coastal marine traffic. The suggested methodology takes into account environmental, technological, and economic aspects, and ensures the participation of different stakeholders in the selection process. The priority ranking of the alternatives is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). The implementation of this method considers the involvement of relevant stakeholders through evaluation of the criteria weights and performance of each alternative with respect to each criterion. The method is applied for the case study of Croatia, where the results demonstrated that the best alternative for all stakeholders is electric propulsion, even though there are differences in opinions and perceptions with respect to the objectives and criteria. The findings of this analysis, likely the first of this type in this area, can serve as a solid basis for strategic planning.
The vertical distribution of chlorophyll in coastal waters is influenced by a combination of the hydrodynamic environment and different biotic and abiotic processes. The spatial and temporal occurrences of chlorophyll profiles provide a good representation of the changes in the marine environment. The majority of studies in the Adriatic Sea have so far been conducted in areas unaffected by anthropogenic pressure. Our study site is located near two marine outfalls, which are part of the public sewage system. This study aims to characterize the chlorophyll vertical distribution and describe its variability based on the stratification conditions and the presence of a wastewater effluent plume. Based on these conditions, we identified three characteristic scenarios/types of chlorophyll profiles. The first one occurs when the vertical mixing of the water column creates the upwelling of chlorophyll and nutrients to the upper part of the water column. The second and third scenarios occur during stratified conditions and differ by the extent of the effluent plume intrusion. Using modern fluorescence techniques, we identified and described three different vertical chlorophyll profiles, characterizing them according to their physical and biological parameters and processes. For cases with a visible effluent intrusion, we confirmed the importance of the pycnocline formation in keeping the effluent below and maintaining the higher water quality status at the top of the water column.
This study presents an approach for assessing the flood risk using the fully probabilistic description of the annual damage using the derived higher-order statistical moments of the annual damage random variable. The annual damage distribution is used to analyze the impact on the macro-scale agglomeration described with the unified damage function in the case study of the river Kupa, Croatia. The agglomeration damage function is derived through the unit damage function and estimated distribution of building thresholds within the studied agglomeration. The unit damage is described with the shape function, which can easily accommodate different forms of damage assessment depending on the available information. The estimated distribution of annual maximum flood levels is propagated through the agglomeration damage function into the annual damage distribution derived using higher-order statistical moments and presented with the exceedance probability, indicating the likelihood that a certain annual maximum damage can be exceeded. Besides the aleatory uncertainty of annual maximum flood levels, we analyzed the impact of the uncertainty in estimating the unit damage function upon the annual damage distribution. This uncertainty shows a significant impact on the shape of the annual damage distribution, particularly in the region of extreme flood events. Analyzing the annual damage distribution range, resulting from the uncertainty in damage functions, provides more information to policymakers in assessing the potential consequences on the future spatial planning programs, particularly from the strategic environmental assessment point of view.
The multi-hazard risk assessment of urban areas represents a comprehensive approach that can be used to reduce, manage and overcome the risks arising from the combination of different natural hazards. This paper presents a methodology for multi-hazard risk assessment based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Making. The PROMETHEE method was used to assess multi-hazard risks caused by seismic, flood and extreme sea waves impact. The methodology is applied for multi-hazard risk evaluation of the urban area of Kaštel Kambelovac, located on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea. The settlement is placed in a zone of high seismic risk with a large number of old stone historical buildings which are vulnerable to the earthquakes. Being located along the low-lying coast, this area is also threatened by floods due to climate change-induced sea level rises. Furthermore, the settlement is exposed to flooding caused by extreme sea waves generated by severe wind. In the present contribution, the multi-hazard risk is assessed for different scenarios and different levels, based on exposure and vulnerability for each of the natural hazards and the influence of additional criteria to the overall risk in homogenous zones. Single-risk analysis has shown that the seismic risk is dominant for the whole pilot area. The results of multi-hazard assessment have shown that in all combinations the highest risk is present in the historical part of Kaštel Kambelovac. This is because the historical part is most exposed to sea floods and extreme waves, as well as due to the fact that a significant number of historical buildings is located in this area.
This paper proposes a framework for evaluation of the sources of uncertainty that can disrupt the flood emergency response process. During the flood response, flood emergency managers usually choose between several decision options under limited available lead-time, but they are often compelled with different sources of uncertainty. These sources can significantly affect the quality of decisions related to adequate response and rapid recovery of the affected system. The proposed framework considers efficient identification, integration, and quantification of system uncertainties related to the flood risk. Uncertainty analysis is performed from a decision-maker’s perspective and focused on the time period near and during the flood event. The major scope of proposed framework is to recognize and characterize sources of uncertainty which can potentially appear within the behavior of the observed system. Using a Bayesian network approach, a model is developed capable for quantification of different sources uncertainty in respect to their particular type. The proposed approach is validated on the Sava River case study, in the area of the city of Slavonski Brod, following the destructive 2014 flood event. The results indicate that, despite improvements of structural measures, the weir failure can still cause flooding of the approximately 1 km2 of otherwise safe area, resulting in the increased flood risk.
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