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Intention to return is often used as a surrogate measure for actual repeat propensity, especially in loyalty studies. A direct, predictive correlation is assumed to exist between intention and actual repeat visitation rates in accordance with the principles of the theory of planned behavior. However, the existence of such a relationship has rarely if ever been tested empirically in a tourism context, and as such, the validity of this assumption is open to question. This article examines that relationship through an analysis of secondary data provided by a number of National Tourism Organizations. Two tests are conducted, one using longitudinal data from 30 markets that visited either Hong Kong or New Zealand, and a second one using cross-sectional data from 152 markets that visited 16 destinations. The study determined that no statistically significant correlation exists between intention and actual repeat visitation rates, primarily because intention is typically measured as a vague aspiration and not in a probabilistic manner.
Abstract:As destinations absorb even increasing number of visitors, destination managers become progressively more concerned about the longer term viability of tourism from a resident's perspective. However, few studies have examined the application of real time social sustainability within tourism, particularly how to measure impacts on social sustainability. This study outlines the development of a valid and reliable scale -the Scale of Social Sustainability (SSS) -for tourism that provides an assessment of social sustainability in destination settings. A 10-step procedure was developed drawing upon the related literature. A telephone poll-based survey generated 1,839 valid responses from Hong Kong residents. Hong Kong's growing popularity as a destination provides a rich array of host-guest conflict situations. Dimensionality was identified using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Construct validity, reliability, and stability were assessed, and found good, showing that the scale could be used by other destinations worldwide. The theoretical and managerial implications of the scale are discussed, including options for annual surveys giving policy makers alerts before situations worsen.Detailed host resident viewpoints, and the large scale of the survey can help local residents be informed about tourism development and better involved in the policy formation process.
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