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Moving from deterministic to probabilistic reliability criteria for power systems necessitates probabilistic methods for socioeconomic impact assessment. This paper demonstrates a probabilistic assessment of the long-term impact of the amount of transmission capacity given to the power market both on the market costs and on the expected customer interruption costs. A hydro-thermal market analysis is integrated with a contingency and reliability analysis and applied to the Nordic power system, focusing on a particular region of Norway and the transmission limits for this region. The results of this analysis are then combined in a socioeconomic cost assessment that illustrates how a probabilistic approach and flexible transmission limits may allow for a more socioeconomically optimal utilization of the grid. The results show that the impact of uncertainties (climatic variability) on the socioeconomic cost assessment can be substantial.

This article presents preliminary results from ongoing work on establishing a simulation model for R&D activities on the impact of the increasing number of HVDC links in the Nordic power grid. The total HVDC power capacity will be 13100 MW (excluding some smaller systems) by 2021. This study addresses a future scenario with additional 7400 MW of HVDC interconnection capacity for power exchange. The scenario is analysed numerically using the simulation tool "DIgSILENT PowerFactory", considering an aggregated representation of the future power grid. The preliminary power flow results indicate that capacity and voltage constraints within the Nordic power grid will be a limiting factor for the power exchange. The first dynamic results indicate that future high import scenarios can give more oscillations after disturbances compared to scenarios with less import, considering generic converter controllers that are not tuned to damp these oscillations.

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