An unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations with a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model and dynamical downscaling with a 20-km regional climate model has been performed to obtain probabilistic future projections of low-frequency local-scale events. The climate of the latter half of the twentieth century, the climate 4 K warmer than the preindustrial climate, and the climate of the latter half of the twentieth century without historical trends associated with the anthropogenic effect are each simulated for more than 5,000 years. From large ensemble simulations, probabilistic future changes in extreme events are available directly without using any statistical models. The atmospheric models are highly skillful in representing localized extreme events, such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. Moreover, mean climate changes in the models are consistent with those in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensembles. Therefore, the results enable the assessment of probabilistic change in localized severe events that have large uncertainty from internal variability. The simulation outputs are open to the public as a database called “Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change” (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for impact assessment studies and adaptation planning for global warming.

We investigate co-evolving dynamics in a weighted network of phase oscillators in which the phases of the oscillators at the nodes and the weights of the links interact with each other. We find that depending on the type of the dynamics of the weights, the system exhibits three kinds of asymptotic behavior: a two-cluster state, a coherent state with a fixed phase relation, and a chaotic state with frustration. Because of its structural stability, it is believed that our model captures the essential characteristics of a class of co-evolving and adaptive networks.

We investigate a network of coupled phase oscillators whose interactions evolve dynamically depending on the relative phases between the oscillators. We found that this coevolving dynamical system robustly yields three basic states of collective behavior with their self-organized interactions. The first is the two-cluster state, in which the oscillators are organized into two synchronized groups. The second is the coherent state, in which the oscillators are arranged sequentially in time. The third is the chaotic state, in which the relative phases between oscillators and their coupling weights are chaotically shuffled. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-assembled multiclusters can be designed by controlling the weight dynamics. Note that the phase patterns of the oscillators and the weighted network of interactions between them are simultaneously organized through this coevolving dynamics. We expect that these results will provide new insight into self-assembly mechanisms by which the collective behavior of a rhythmic system emerges as a result of the dynamics of adaptive interactions.

Recently multineuronal recording has allowed us to observe patterned firings, synchronization, oscillation, and global state transitions in the recurrent networks of central nervous systems. We propose a learning algorithm based on the process of information maximization in a recurrent network, which we call recurrent infomax (RI). RI maximizes information retention and thereby minimizes information loss through time in a network. We find that feeding in external inputs consisting of information obtained from photographs of natural scenes into an RI-based model of a recurrent network results in the appearance of Gabor-like selectivity quite similar to that existing in simple cells of the primary visual cortex. We find that without external input, this network exhibits cell assembly-like and synfire chain-like spontaneous activity as well as a critical neuronal avalanche. In addition, we find that RI embeds externally input temporal firing patterns to the network so that it spontaneously reproduces these patterns after learning. RI provides a simple framework to explain a wide range of phenomena observed in in vivo and in vitro neuronal networks, and it will provide a novel understanding of experimental results for multineuronal activity and plasticity from an information-theoretic point of view.