No abstract

After a large subduction earthquake, crustal deformation continues to occur, with a complex pattern of evolution. This postseismic deformation is due primarily to viscoelastic relaxation of stresses induced by the earthquake rupture and continuing slip (afterslip) or relocking of different parts of the fault. When postseismic geodetic observations are used to study Earth's rheology and fault behaviour, it is commonly assumed that short-term (a few years) deformation near the rupture zone is caused mainly by afterslip, and that viscoelasticity is important only for longer-term deformation. However, it is difficult to test the validity of this assumption against conventional geodetic data. Here we show that new seafloor GPS (Global Positioning System) observations immediately after the great Tohoku-oki earthquake provide unambiguous evidence for the dominant role of viscoelastic relaxation in short-term postseismic deformation. These data reveal fast landward motion of the trench area, opposing the seaward motion of GPS sites on land. Using numerical models of transient viscoelastic mantle rheology, we demonstrate that the landward motion is a consequence of relaxation of stresses induced by the asymmetric rupture of the thrust earthquake, a process previously unknown because of the lack of near-field observations. Our findings indicate that previous models assuming an elastic Earth will have substantially overestimated afterslip downdip of the rupture zone, and underestimated afterslip updip of the rupture zone; our knowledge of fault friction based on these estimates therefore needs to be revised.

[1] On 11 March 2011, the devastating M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake occurred on the interface of the subducting Pacific plate, and was followed by a huge tsunami that killed about 20,000 people. Several geophysical studies have already suggested that the very shallow portion of the plate interface might have played an important role in producing such a large earthquake and tsunami. However, the sparsity of seafloor observations leads to insufficient spatial resolution of the fault slip on such a shallow plate interface. For this reason, the location and degree of the slip has not yet been estimated accurately enough to assess future seismic risks. Thus, we estimated the coseismic slip distribution based on terrestrial GPS observations and all available seafloor geodetic data that significantly improve the spatial resolution at the shallow portion of the plate interface. The results reveal that an extremely large (greater than 50 m) slip occurred in a small (about 40 km in width and 120 km in length) area near the Japan Trench and generated the huge tsunami. The estimated slip distribution and a comparison of it with the coupling coefficient distribution deduced from the analysis of the small repeating earthquakes suggest that the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake released strain energy that had accumulated over the past 1000 years, probably since the Jogan Earthquake in 869. The accurate assessments of seismic risks on very shallow plate interfaces in subduction zones throughout the world can be obtained by improving the quality and quantity of seafloor geodetic observations.

[1] Real-time crustal deformation monitoring is extremely important for achieving rapid understanding of actual earthquake scales, because the measured permanent displacement directly gives the true earthquake size (seismic moment, M w ) information, which in turn, provides tsunami forecasting. We have developed an algorithm to detect/ estimate static ground displacements due to earthquake faulting from real-time kinematic GPS (RTK-GPS) time series. The new algorithm identifies permanent displacements by monitoring the difference of a short-term average (STA) to a long-term average (LTA) of the GPS time series. We assessed the noise property and precision of the RTK-GPS time series with various baseline length conditions and orbits and discerned that the real-time ephemerides based on the International GNSS Service (IGS) are sufficient for crustal deformation monitoring with long baselines up to $1,000 km. We applied the algorithm to data obtained in the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (M w 9.0) to test the possibility of coseismic displacement detections, and further, we inverted the obtained displacement fields for a fault model; the inversion estimated a fault model with M w 8.7, which is close to the actual M w of 9.0, within five minutes from the origin time. Once the fault model is estimated, tsunami waveforms can be immediately synthesized using pre-computed tsunami Green's functions. The calculated waveforms showed good agreement with the actual tsunami observations both in arrival times and wave heights, suggesting that the RTK-GPS data by our algorithm can provide reliable rapid tsunami forecasting that can complement existing tsunami forecasting systems based on seismic observations. Citation: Ohta, Y., et al. (2012), Quasi real-time fault model estimation for near-field tsunami forecasting based on RTK-GPS analysis: Application to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (M w 9.0),

Both aseismic and seismic slip accommodate relative motion across partially coupled plate-boundary faults. In northeastern Japan, aseismic slip occurs in the form of decelerating afterslip after large interplate earthquakes and as relatively steady slip on uncoupled areas of the subduction thrust. Here we report on a previously unrecognized quasi-periodic slow-slip behavior that is widespread in the megathrust zone. The repeat intervals of the slow slip range from 1 to 6 years and often coincide with or precede clusters of large [magnitude (M) ≥ 5] earthquakes, including the 2011 M 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake. These results suggest that inherently periodic slow-slip events result in periodic stress perturbations and modulate the occurrence time of larger earthquakes. The periodicity in the slow-slip rate has the potential to help refine time-dependent earthquake forecasts.