<p>Climate change is projected to cause not only higher mean temperatures but also higher climate variability. Although elevated CO2 concentrations can potentially increase the productivity of some ecosystems, higher temperatures and more frequent droughts may lead to increased respiration and mortality, possibly negating these productivity gains. The capacity of global forests to adjust to climate change depends on their functional diversity and the ecosystem’s adaptive capacity.</p><p>The Plant-FATE eco-evolutionary model describes vegetation responses to altered environmental conditions, including CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, temperatures, and droughts. It represents functional diversity by modelling species as points in trait space and incorporates ecosystem adaptations at three levels: 1) to model acclimation of plastic traits of individual plants, we leverage the power of eco-evolutionary optimality principles, 2) to model shifts in species composition via demographic changes and species immigration, we implement a trait-size-structured demographic vegetation model, and 3) to model the long-term genetic evolution of species, we have developed new evolutionary theory for trait-size-structured communities.</p><p>First, we show that with just a few calibrated parameters, the Plant-FATE model accurately predicts the fluxes of CO2 and water, size distributions, and trait distributions for a tropical wet site in the Amazon Forest. Second, we show that under elevated CO2 conditions and in the absence of nutrient limitation, our model predictions are broadly consistent with observations, namely: an increase in leaf area, productivity and biomass, and a decrease in stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity. Third, we simulate the calibrated model with hypothetical future drought regimes to investigate three key features of ecosystem responses: 1) the change in species composition and ecosystem functioning in response to altered conditions, 2) the timescales of ecosystem response to new regimes, 3) the influence of functional diversity on the timescale of ecosystem adaptation and its consequences for ecosystem collapse.</p><p>Our eco-evolutionary vegetation modelling strategy presents a powerful approach to leverage the power of natural selection to simulate ecosystem dynamics under novel conditions that plants may have never experienced before.</p>

<p>Half of the world’s livestock live in (semi-)arid regions, where a large proportion of people rely on animal husbandry for their survival. However, overgrazing can lead to abrupt land degradation and subsequent socio-economic crises. Sustainable management of dry rangeland requires suitable stocking strategies and has been the subject of intense debate in the last decades. Our goal is to understand how variations in stocking strategies affect the resilience of dry rangelands. We describe rangeland dynamics through a simple mathematical model consisting of a system of coupled differential equations. In our model, livestock density is limited only by forage availability, which is itself limited by water availability. We model processes typical of dryland vegetation as a strong Allee effect, leading to bistability between a vegetated and a degraded state, even in the absence of herbivores. Our system is therefore susceptible to abrupt transitions to a degraded state. We study analytically the impact of varying the stocking density and the destocking adaptivity on the resilience of the system to the effects of drought. By using dynamical systems theory, we look at how different measures of resilience are affected by variations in destocking strategies. We find that:<br />1) Increasing stocking density decreases resilience, giving rise to an expected trade-off between productivity and resilience.<br />2) There exists a maximal sustainable livestock density above which the system can only be degraded. This carrying capacity is common to all strategies.<br />3) Higher adaptivity of the destocking rate to available forage makes the system more resilient: the more adaptive a system is, the bigger the losses of vegetation it can recover from, without affecting the long term level of productivity.<br />The first two results emphasize the need for suitable dry rangeland management strategies, in order to prevent degradation resulting from<br />the conflict between profitability and sustainability. The third point offers a theoretical suggestion for such a strategy.</p>

Half of the world's livestock live in (semi-)arid regions, where a large proportion of people rely on animal husbandry for their survival. However, overgrazing can lead to land degradation and subsequent socio-economic crises. Sustainable management of dry rangeland requires suitable stocking strategies and has been the subject of intense debate in the last decades. Our goal is to understand how variations in stocking strategies affect the resilience of dry rangelands. We describe rangeland dynamics through a simple mathematical model consisting of a system of coupled differential equations. In our model, livestock density is limited only by forage availability, which is itself limited by water availability. We model processes typical of dryland vegetation as a strong Allee effect, leading to bistability between a vegetated and a degraded state, even in the absence of herbivores. We study analytically the impact of varying the stocking density and the destocking adaptivity on the resilience of the system to the effects of drought. By using dynamical systems theory, we look at how different measures of resilience are affected by variations in destocking strategies. We find that the following: (1) Increasing stocking density decreases resilience, giving rise to an expected trade-off between productivity and resilience. (2) There exists a maximal sustainable livestock density above which the system can only be degraded. This carrying capacity is common to all strategies. (3) Higher adaptivity of the destocking rate to available forage makes the system more resilient: the more adaptive a system is, the bigger the losses of vegetation it can recover from, without affecting the longterm level of productivity. The first two results emphasize the need for suitable dry rangeland management strategies, to prevent degradation resulting from the conflict between profitability and sustainability. The third point offers a theoretical suggestion for such a strategy.