Climate-driven shifts in species distributions are occurring rapidly within marine systems and are predicted to continue under climate change. To effectively adapt, marine resource users require information relevant to their activities at decision-making timescales. We model oceanographic habitat suitability for kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from south-eastern Australia using multiple environmental variables at monthly time steps over the period 1996–2040. Habitat predictions were used to quantify the temporal persistence (months per year) of suitable oceanographic habitat within six coastal bioregions. A decline in temporal habitat persistence is predicted for the northernmost (equatorward) bioregion, whereas increases are predicted for the three southernmost (poleward) bioregions. We suggest that temporal habitat persistence is an important metric for climate change adaptation because it provides fishery-relevant information. Our methods demonstrate how novel metrics relevant to climate adaptation can be derived from predictions of species’ environmental habitats, and are appropriate for the management of fisheries resources and protection of high conservation value species under future climate change.

Recent recruitment declines in important spiny lobster fisheries worldwide have triggered conjecture about negative impacts of anthropogenically induced environmental change on their long-lived planktonic larval life stages. Puerulus larvae are the critical transitional stage between pelagic larval development and coastal juvenile recruitment and may be particularly sensitive to environmental change due to immature cardiorespiratory capacity and exceptional energy demands associated with shoreward migration. We measured Sagmariasus verreauxi pueruli energy metabolism and defined their thermal tolerance, which are considered against published coastal recruitment data and spatially explicit ocean warming scenarios. The upper threshold of the thermal optimum window (upper pejus temperature range) was defined by the temperature optimum for aerobic scope. Within the upper pejus temperature range, pueruli had diminished aerobic capacity for physiological performance and used more of their finite lipid reserves to support an amplified metabolism. Sea surface temperatures at the northern extent of their natural range already reach the upper pejus range, and monitoring settlement data from the wild indicted that fewer puerulus successfully recruit during hot seasons in this area. Our study provides some evidence that physiological thermal tolerance constraints are already limiting postlarval recruitment. Predicted increases in water temperatures for their rapidly warming habitat will amplify the thermal challenge experienced by pueruli and may result in large shifts in lobster distribution and significant re-shuffling of species assemblages, creating challenges for sustainable natural resource management.

Species distribution models are commonly used to determine a species’ probability of occurrence but have not been used to examine the effect of environmental habitat suitability on fish condition, which is considered to be an integrated measure of physiological status. Here, we test for a relationship between oceanographic habitat suitability and the body condition of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from eastern Australia. We (a) test whether individuals sampled from areas of high‐quality habitat were in better condition than individuals sampled from areas of low‐quality habitat, and (b) assess whether the condition of kingfish responded to oceanographic habitat suitability predicted at varying time‐before‐capture periods. Kingfish habitat was modelled as a function of sea surface temperature, sea‐level anomaly and eddy kinetic energy in a generalized additive modelling framework. Model predictions were made over one‐ to six‐week time‐before‐capture periods and compared to field‐derived kingfish condition data measured using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Oceanographic habitat suitability was significantly correlated with kingfish condition at time‐before‐capture periods ranging from one to four weeks and became increasingly correlated at shorter lead‐times. Our results highlight that (a) fish condition can respond sensitively to environmental variability and this response can be detected using oceanographic habitat suitability models, and (b) climate change may drive extensions in species range limits through spatial shifts in oceanographic habitat quality that allow individuals to persist beyond historical range boundaries without their body condition being compromised.