It is not clear which selective pressures balance the strong fecundity advantage associated with large female body size in insects. A positively sizedependent mortality risk could provide a solution. In aviary experiments with artificial larvae, we studied if larger larvae of folivorous insects are more readily found (= detectability) and/or attacked (= acceptability) by birds. As size and colouration are likely to interact in determining birds' responses, both cryptic and conspicuous prey items were used. As detectability is likely to be context-dependent, both simple (smooth) and complex (plants) backgrounds were used in respective experiments. In the conspicuous larvae, acceptability correlated negatively with prey size. However, their detectability was context dependent, being positively correlated with size on the simple background, whereas no significant effect was found on the complex background. Surprisingly, cryptic larvae showed no correlation between detectability and size, and there was only a weak tendency for birds to attack large larvae more readily. On the basis of a quantitative model, we conclude that the effect of positively size dependent bird predation, as a single factor, is not likely to counterbalance the fecundity advantage in cryptic species, and may thus not be crucial in determining the optimum for body sizes in these insects. In conspicuous species, there is a potential for different outcomes, because detectability and acceptability affect survival in different directions. The net outcome is, therefore, likely to be highly context-dependent. Furthermore, our results provide an explanation for the recently reported absence of systematic body-size differences between cryptic and conspicuous Lepidopteran larvae: although conspicuous larvae benefit from increasing their warning signal when growing larger, they also suffer a much sharper rise in detectability.

Abstract. While the study of colour patterns is a traditional subject of evolutionary ecology, there are various hypotheses which suffer from a lack of experimental evidence. One intriguing possibility is a trade-off between warning efficiency and detectability. After a certain size threshold, the detrimental effect of increased detectability can outweigh the benefits of warning colouration. One may thus expect corresponding patterns at the level of ontogenetic development: as juveniles grow, they should first acquire warning colouration, and then lose it again. We analysed this possibility in Orgyia antiqua, a moth species with hairy larvae which are polyphenic with respect to the intensity of warning colouration. We detected a regular change in colour patterns through larval life. Indeed, the larvae tend to display warning colouration at intermediate sizes while dull colours dominate in fully grown larvae. In aviary experiments, we confirmed that the colourful phenotype is the one that causes the strongest aversion in birds. Nevertheless, the effect was rather weak and most of the larvae were still eventually consumed when found. Unexpectedly, for human subjects, the warningly coloured larvae were harder, and not easier to find among natural vegetation, most likely due to the disruptive effect of the aposematic colour pattern. Importantly, the trend was reversed in the largest size class, suggesting that the disruptive colouration loses its advantage as the larva grows. This is consistent with the actual patterns of size-dependence of colouration. We present evidence against an alternative explanation which relates size-related change in colouration to behavioural changes prior to pupation. We conclude that even if the efficiency of the warning effect plays a role in determining the size-dependence of colouration, the pattern may be largely explained by the effects of size-dependent detectability alone.