The climate change scenarios, especially global warming, have raised significant concerns, and the Himalayan regions such as Uttarakhand are highly vulnerable to such climatic shifts. Considering 10 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments in South Asia (CORDEX-SA), experiments with 3 regional climate models (RCMs), driven by 13 global climate models, historical estimates and future projections are analyzed from the mid-century (MC) i.e., from 2021–2050 to the end of the century (EC) i.e., from 2070–2099 to characterize annual and seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature. The analysis shows a decrease in the annual average precipitation by 5.92% at MC and an increase of 5.97% at EC for the Representative Climate Pathway (RCP) 4.5, while precipitation may likely increase from 2.83% to 15.89% towards MC and EC in the RCP 8.5. The maximum temperature may likely increase from 0.42 °C to 3.07 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 4.5 and from 0.83 °C to 5.49 °C in the RCP 8.5. In addition, the minimum temperature may increase from 0.80 °C to 3.25 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 4.5 and from 0.30 °C to 5.86 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 8.5. Notably, a decrease in the pre-monsoon precipitation at EC and a higher increase in the maximum temperature during the monsoon season are observed. An increase in the maximum temperature along with precipitation may lead to an increase in the frequency of the monsoon season’s extreme rainfall events.
The present research details the remote sensing, geotechnical and seismic aspects of hill slopes in Lower Tons river valley, Garhwal Himalaya, India. The region is a part of Lesser Himalaya and holds religious and strategic importance. The studied span has been a site of slope failures in the past. The remote sensing investigation was used to characterize the geomorphological and hydrological attributes of the area. This information was used to delineate vulnerable locations. Along the road stretch of about 80 km, 80 tests were conducted to ascertain the soil particle distribution and plasticity indices; and 33 tests for shear strength properties. Using the geotechnical parameters, numerical simulation was conducted for two slopes of angle, 40 and 50 , with a consistent height of 50 m. Most of the slopes were stable at an angle of 40 , however, 30.30% (FEM) and 24.24% (FDM) of the analysed slopes failed for the steeper slope. Eventually, the pseudo-static analysis was done. The inclusion of seismicity increased the incidences of slope failure by 33.33% and 39.39% for the slope with an inclination of 40 and 50 , respectively. Afterwards, the slopes were optimized for their critical angle as a function of the safety factor.
A watershed is the result of several geomorphic processes such as weathering, erosion, degradation and aggradation which are influenced by several factors viz. tectonics, lithology, climate, landslides and mass wasting processes etc. In a tropical climate, watersheds contribute a significant amount of eroded material which is reflecting the impact of lithology, precipitation, tectonics, relief and anthropogenic activities. In the Himalayan region besides significant heterogeneity in lithology, stratigraphy, structure and tectonics, it is observed that variability is exhibited in climatic conditions over a small region. These factors contribute to the development of geomorphic landforms and are best studied in watersheds or river basins. In the present study, Giri Watershed (GW) is assessed to contemplate susceptibility to erosion for 66 sub-watersheds using geomorphic parameters. The prioritization of subwatersheds has been done using Weighted Sum Analysis (WSA) and Sediment Production Rate (SPR) methods. The quantitative analysis of subwatersheds is categorized into different priority classes viz. very high, high, moderate, low and very low, among which 27 subwatersheds have very high to high susceptibility to erosion.
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