Energy represents an important share of production costs for many agricultural commodities. Previous studies have found mixed evidence of a pass‐through relationship between oil prices and agricultural commodity prices, a relationship that has the potential to disrupt farm‐level decision making. We propose that these mixed findings are in part due to heterogeneity in the pass‐through relationship across time horizons. We use a new wavelet‐based regression approach to explore horizon‐based heterogeneity in the relationship between oil and agricultural commodity prices. We find strong evidence of heterogeneity across time horizons and commodities. We develop a stylized model of agricultural production and show that agricultural contracts can generate price stickiness that leads to heterogeneity in input price pass through over different horizons. We also find evidence that recent technological shifts have led to a structural change in this horizon‐based heterogeneity.

Abstract:The Fourier Flexible form provides a global approximation to an unknown data generating process. In terms of limiting function specification error, this form is preferable to functional forms based on second-order Taylor series expansions. The Fourier Flexible form is a truncated Fourier series expansion appended to a second-order expansion in logarithms. By replacing the logarithmic expansion with a Box-Cox transformation, we show that the Fourier Flexible form can reduce approximation error by 25% on average in the tails of the data distribution. The new functional form allows for nested testing of a larger set of commonly implemented functional forms.

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This article examines the effect of the Renewable Fuel Standards and market power on the growth of the cellulosic biofuel sector. We develop a sectoral model to show how changes in the regulations governing cellulosic fuel production affect the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol. Based on model calibration for Washington State, we find that existing low-cost waivers purchased by obligated parties in lieu of cellulosic fuel production negate the effectiveness of the renewable fuel standard to induce the production and consumption of cellulosic biofuels. However, raising waiver price slightly relative to the status quo significantly increases the equilibrium quantity of cellulosic ethanol. The high cost of cellulosic ethanol production is often cited as the cause of the lack of cellulosic ethanol production, which is used to justify low waiver prices. Our policy message is the converse: the low current waiver price significantly contributes to the cellulosic ethanol market stagnation in the context of the current biofuel policy.

This paper derives the optimal integrated tax-subsidy policy where one input is taxed and revenues are used to subsidize the use of a substitute input to reduce greenhouse gas emissions given the existing policies under the Renewable Fuel Standard policies. We measure the welfare effects and impact on cellulosic ethanol production after implementing the tax-subsidy policy using a general equilibrium model. A revenue-neutral integrated tax-subsidy scheme would lead to a small positive tax rate for crude oil and a large positive subsidy for cellulosic ethanol because the former has a larger emissions coefficient than the latter. The overall welfare effects of an integrated tax subsidy scheme are less than a 1% increase for the economy but the growth in the cellulosic ethanol industry could range from 28% to 238% because the revenues from taxing crude oil are directly used to subsidize cellulosic ethanol production.