As renewable energy supply chains have grown increasingly globalized, national clean energy transitions have become highly influenced by international dynamics. However, these dynamics are themselves collectively shaped by domestic policy that drives the deployment of renewables. While spatial spillovers of domestic renewable energy policies have been studied on an aggregate level regarding policy diffusion or the flows of technology across countries, implications on an actor-level have been largely neglected. This article addresses this gap by analyzing global patterns of market openings for wind, solar PV, and biomass, focusing on the role of private project developers in developing countries. We use a mixed method design, based on a newly merged dataset encompassing eighty countries, and on interviews with pioneering project developers. Results highlight how patterns in market openings are shaped considerably by technology characteristics. Further, empirical results show international private developers are a key first mover in many developing countries. We explore drivers for this internationalization trend, including the impact of international developers' home country policies and the accumulation of tacit knowledge from home country markets for market openings abroad. Finally, we discuss implications for industrial policy and argue for further research on global spillovers of national policies on the actor-level.
Green industrial policies around renewable energy (RE) are growing increasingly prevalent in emerging economy contexts as a means to foster low-carbon industrialization pathways. However, policymakers often face a tradeoff in their policy designs. In this paper, we focus on the tradeoff between minimizing the cost of lowcarbon energy generation to fuel traditional input-intensive industrialization strategies, and implementing potentially costly measures to build local industries around low-carbon energy technologies. Specifically, we utilize the cases of Mexico and South Africa to investigate how each country's distinct prioritization of these two objectives led to a divergence of their RE auction designs and outcomes. Specifically, using data on the involvement of local and foreign actors in Mexican and South African RE projects, policy documents, and interviews with public and private stakeholders in the two countries, we show how each country's policy design shaped RE market and bid price developments, and the formation of local RE value chains. We find that the prioritization of low-cost RE generation can result in a greater reliance on existing foreign value chains and capital, without building the local capabilities that could result in greater long-term benefits for the market. We further discuss the implications of our results for policymakers, focusing on providing recommendations for RE industrial policy design in general, and the calibration of local content incentives in particular.
The environmental argument behind fossil fuel subsidy reform is strong, particularly among international finance institutions wishing to support 'transformational' low-carbon development. However, supporting reform in practice has often met methodological and political barriers. Instead, a large share of international climate finance has flowed to national policies and measures that incentivize the deployment of low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy technologies. In this paper, we propose that 'hybrid' policies that package fossil fuel subsidy reform with low-carbon technology deployment policy offer an opportunity for donors to support mitigation activities that achieve both concrete environmental impacts as well as longterm structural change. Specifically, we model the abatement cost, fossil fuel subsidy savings, and generation cost resulting from combining wind and solar photovoltaic deployment policy with fossil fuel subsidy phase-out in four country case studies. Our results not only show the extent to which fossil fuel subsidies can undermine the financial viability of low-carbon energy technologies, but also how cost uncertainties can be buffered by combining fossil fuel subsidy reform with renewable energy deployment. Furthermore, we assess the proposed hybrid policy against typical climate finance criteria and thus contribute to debates surrounding donor strategies to support low-carbon development.
Growing energy demands and rapid urbanization alongside an increasing urgency for climate change mitigation and resiliency make grid-connected distributed photovoltaics (PV) a critical solution in many emerging economies. However, adoption of distributed PV in these contexts has been slow due to its high upfront cost. As policies to kick-start the distributed PV market directly are often costly, this paper shows how a policy that first supports cheaper utility-scale PV deployment can create spillovers that lead to complementary cost reductions in distributed PV. Specifically, through interviews with experts in the PV industry, this paper finds that strong utility-scale deployment helps build local PV competencies and ecosystems, thereby facilitating the networks, scale, and value chains needed for distributed PV markets to develop. Harnessing these spillover effects can also reduce the upfront cost of distributed PV significantly and cost-effectively. Results of a dynamic bottom-up techno-economic model based on spillovers across PV components indicate that, in the presence of application spillovers, public financing used to initially support utility-scale PV deployment can leverage significant distributed PV cost reductions. By accelerating the profitability of distributed PV, application spillovers also enable more widespread and equitable distributed PV adoption. The paper concludes with recommendations to policymakers wishing to support more widespread distributed PV adoption in emerging and developing country contexts, with a particular focus on strategies for fostering application spillovers.
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