Objectives To evaluate the precision of aligner (Invisalign®) treatment with the current material (SmartTrack®) in achieving expansion or contraction of the maxilla and occlusal contacts as simulated in the proprietary planning software (ClinCheck®, CC). Materials and methods Thirty patients thus treated were retrospectively evaluated. Four maxillary models were analyzed per patient: a pretreatment model, a scan-based CC model, a posttreatment clinical model, and a CC model reflecting the treatment outcome as initially simulated. Thirteen transverse parameters were measured on each model separately by two investigators. Occlusal contacts were also analyzed. Results The measuring method was validated by both investigators arriving at similar results for the effectiveness by which the simulated treatment goals had been clinically achieved. Significant differences (p < 0.05; Wilcoxon signed-rank test) were observed for transfer precision from the casts to the planning software and between the simulated and clinical outcomes. Intense occlusal contacts in the simulations materialized less common (≈ 2%) than ideal contacts (≈ 60%) in the clinical outcomes. Conclusions The effectiveness of achieving the simulated transverse goals was 45% and was generally not found to be better with SmartTrack® than with the previously used Ex30® material. Out of 100 simulated occlusal contacts, 40 will never materialize, and achieving around 60 will adequately ensure a clinically favorable contact pattern. Clinical relevance With the caveat that any overcorrection will to some extent reduce the precision, it seems perfectly possible to make deliberate use of overcorrection in current aligner therapies for transverse maxillary expansion or contraction.