This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria. Three different kinds of oil price data were applied in this study: the actual spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price, and an average of the Brent, WTI, and Dubai oil price. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) dynamic panels were used to estimate the short- and long-term impacts. Also, we partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found that both the positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when the oil prices dropped. We also found that the money supply, the exchange rate, and the gross domestic product (GDP) are positively related to inflation, while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policy-makers should be cautious when formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices, as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of a contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate. Lastly, we suggest that the government should encourage domestic food production, both in quantity and quality, to reduce inflation.
This article investigated the impact of human capital and technology on economic growth in Nigeria. We employed annual time series data for the period of 35 years and applied autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to examine the relationship between human capital, technology, and economic growth. Two proxies of human capital (secondary and tertiary school enrollments) were used in two separate models. The cointegration result revealed that all the variables in the two separate models were cointegrated. Furthermore, the results of the two estimated models showed that human capital in form in secondary and tertiary school enrollments have had significant positive impact on economic growth. More so, technology also shows significant positive impact on economic growth. In a nutshell, both human capital and technology are important determinants of growth in Nigeria. Therefore, improvement of the educational sector and more funding for research and development (R&D) to encourage innovations are needed to facilitate Nigeria's sustained economic growth.
This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria. Three different oil price data were applied in this study; the specific spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price and an average of the Brent, WTI and Dubai oil price. The dynamic panels ARDL were used to estimate the short and the long-run impacts. Also, this study partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found both positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when oil prices dropped. The results from the study also found that money supply, the exchange rate and GDP are positively related to inflation while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policymakers should be cautious in formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate, and lastly, it is proposed that the government should encourage domestic food production both in quantity and quality to reduce inflation.
This research explores the impact of population growth, poverty and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study employed an econometric procedure; unit root test which involved the use of Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) and Phillip-Perron test (PP). The cointegration test technique used in the study is Auto Regressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study variables are real GDP, population, poverty, unemployment and foreign direct investment has control variable. The null hypothesis stated that there is presence of a unit root was failed to be rejected at levels but rejected at first difference according to the two tests (ADP and PP) employed. The study found that some of the variables are stationary at level I(0) while others are stationary at first difference I(1).The results of the cointegration test showed that there exist cointegrating equation between explanatory variables and economic growth. The ECT speed of adjustment to the normal equilibrium confirms their long run relationship of the variables. Finally, the study found that population and FDI have a positive impact while poverty and unemployment has negative impact on GDP. Based on these findings recommend that policy makers should grow the real economic sectors to improve and enhance productivity, exports, job creation, curb inflation and reduce poverty and rapid economic growth and substitute the non-productive imports with domestic products and develop enabling environment to attract foreign private investors.
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