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The lifetime risk of maternal death is the risk that a 15-year-old girl will die of a maternal cause in her reproductive lifetime. Its intuitive appeal means it is a widely used summary measure for advocacy and international comparisons of maternal health. But relative to mortality, women are at a higher risk of experiencing life-threatening maternal morbidity called 'maternal near miss events' - complications so severe that women almost died. As maternal mortality continues to decline, stronger health indicators that include information on both fatal and non-fatal maternal outcomes are required. Thus, we propose a novel measure - the lifetime risk of maternal near miss - to estimate the risk a girl will experience at least one maternal near miss in her reproductive lifetime, accounting for survival from ages 15-49. This new indicator is urgently needed because existing measures of maternal morbidity prevalence (near miss ratio or rate) do not capture the cumulative risk over the reproductive life course. We use estimates of fertility and survival from the World Population Prospects for Kenya in 2021 along with simulated data on the maternal near miss ratio to demonstrate the calculation of the lifetime risk of maternal near miss. We estimate that the lifetime risk of maternal near miss in Kenya is 1 in 37, compared to a lifetime risk of maternal death of 1 in 59.

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ObjectiveTo compare the causes of death for women who died during pregnancy and within the first 42 days postpartum with those of women who died between >42 days and within 1 year postpartum.DesignOpen population cohort (Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems).SettingTen Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa.Population2114 deaths which occurred within 1 year of the end of pregnancy where a verbal autopsy interview was conducted from 2000 to 2019.MethodsInterVA5 and InSilicoVA verbal autopsy algorithms were used to attribute the most likely underlying cause of death, which were grouped according to adapted International Classification of Diseases‐Maternal Mortality categories. Multinomial regression was used to compare differences in causes of deaths within 42 days versus 43–365 days postpartum adjusting for HDSS and time period (2000–2009 and 2010–2019).Main outcome measuresCause of death and the verbal autopsy Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs).ResultsOf 2114 deaths, 1212 deaths occurred within 42 days postpartum and 902 between 43 and 365 days postpartum. Compared with deaths within 42 days, deaths from HIV and TB, other infectious diseases, and non‐communicable diseases constituted a significantly larger proportion of late pregnancy‐related deaths beyond 42 days postpartum, and health system failures were important in the circumstances of those deaths. The contribution of HIV and TB to deaths beyond 42 days postpartum was greatest in Southern Africa. The causes of pregnancy‐related mortality within and beyond 42 days postpartum did not change significantly between 2000–2009 and 2010–2019.ConclusionsCause of death data from the extended postpartum period are critical to inform prevention. The dominance of HIV and TB, other infectious and non‐communicable diseases to (late) pregnancy‐related mortality highlights the need for better integration of non‐obstetric care with ante‐, intra‐ and postpartum care in high‐burden settings.