Increased recycling of nutrient-rich organic waste to meet crop nutrient needs is an essential component of a more sustainable food system. However, agricultural specialization continues to pose a significant challenge to balancing crop nutrient needs and the nutrient supply from animal manure and human excreta locally. For Sweden, this study found that recycling all excreta (in 2007) could meet up to 75% of crop nitrogen and 81% of phosphorus needs, but that this would exceed crop potassium needs by 67%. Recycling excreta within municipalities could meet 63% of crop P nutrient needs, but large regional differences and imbalances need to be corrected to avoid over or under fertilizing. Over 50% of the total nitrogen and phosphorus in excreta is contained in just 40% of municipalities, and those have a surplus of excreta nutrients compared to crop needs. Reallocation of surpluses (nationally optimized for phosphorus) towards deficit municipalities, would cost 192 million USD (for 24 079 km of truck travel). This is 3.7 times more than the total NPK fertilizer value being transported. These results indicate that Sweden could reduce its dependence on synthetic fertilizers through investments in excreta recycling, but this would likely require valuing also other recycling benefits.

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Recycling essential plant nutrients like nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) from organic waste such as human and animal excreta will be an essential part of sustainable food systems and a circular economy. However, transportation is often cited as a major barrier to increased recycling as organic waste is heavy and bulky, and distances between areas of abundant waste may be far from areas with a need for fertilizers. We investigated the effect of increased input data spatial resolution to an optimization model on the weight, distance, and spatial patterns of transport. The model was run in Sweden and in Pakistan to examine cost-effectiveness of transporting excess excreta to areas of crop need after local recycling. Increasing the resolution of input data from political boundaries (municipalities and districts) to 0.083 decimal grids increased the amount of N requiring transport by 12% in Pakistan and increased P requiring transport by 14% in Sweden. The average distance decreased by 67% (to 44 km) in Pakistan but increased by 1 km in Sweden. Further increasing the resolution to 5 km grids in Sweden decreased the average transportation distance by 9 km (down to 123 km). In both countries, increasing resolution also decreased the number of long-distance heavy transports, and as such costs did not increase as much as total distance and weight transported. Ultimately, transportation in Pakistan seemed financially beneficial: the cost of transport only represented 13% of the NPK fertilizer value transported, and total recycling could even cover 78% of additional fertilizer purchases required. In Sweden, the cost of transporting excreta did not seem cost effective without valuing other potential benefits of increased recycling: costs were three times higher than the fertilizer value transported in excreta at the 5 km resolution. In summary, increasing input data resolution created a more realistic picture of recycling needs. This also highlighted more favorable cost to fertilizer value ratios which could make it easier to move forward with industry and government partners to facilitate productive recycling. Our analysis shows that in both countries increased recycling can result in better spatial nutrient balances.

Achieving food security will require closing yield gaps in many regions, including Pakistan. Although fertilizer subsidies have facilitated increased nitrogen (N) application rates, many staple crop yields have yet to reach their maximum potential. Considering that current animal manure and human excreta (bio-supply) recycling rates are low, there is substantial potential to increase the reuse of nutrients in bio-supply. We quantified 2010 crop N, phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) needs along with bio-supply nutrient availability for Pakistani districts, and compared these values to synthetic fertilizer use and costs. We found that synthetic fertilizer use combined with low bio-supply recycling resulted in a substantial gap between nutrient supply and P and K crop needs, which would cost 3 billion USD to fill with synthetic fertilizers. If all bio-supply was recycled, it could eliminate K synthetic fertilizer needs and decrease N synthetic fertilizer needs to 43% of what was purchased in 2010. Under a full recycling scenario, farmers would still require an additional 0.28 million tons of synthetic P fertilizers, costing 2.77 billion USD. However, it may not be prohibitively expensive to correct P deficiencies. Pakistan already spends this amount of money on fertilizers. If funds used for synthetic N were reallocated to synthetic P purchases in a full bio-supply recycling scenario, crop needs could be met. Most recycling could happen within districts, with only 6% of bio-supply requiring between-district transport when optimized to meet national N crop needs. Increased recycling in Pakistan could be a viable way to decrease yield gaps.

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