BACKGROUND: Accurate penetrance of monogenic disorders is often unknown due to a phenotype-first approach to genetic testing. Here, we use a genotype-first approach in four large cohorts with different ascertainment contexts to accurately estimate penetrance of the three commonest causes of monogenic diabetes, Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY). We contrast HNF1A-MODY / HNF4A-MODY which causes an age-related progressive diabetes and GCK-MODY, which causes life-long mild hyperglycaemia. METHODS: We analysed clinical and genetic sequencing data from four different cohorts: 1742 probands referred for clinical MODY testing; 2194 family members of the MODY probands; 132,194 individuals from an American hospital-based cohort; and 198,748 individuals from a UK population-based cohort. RESULTS: Age-related penetrance of diabetes for pathogenic variants in HNF1A and HNF4A was substantially lower in the clinically unselected cohorts compared to clinically referred probands (ranging from 32% to 98% at age 40yrs for HNF1A, and 21% to 99% for HNF4A). The background rate of diabetes, but not clinical features or variant type, explained the reduced penetrance in the unselected cohorts. In contrast, penetrance of mild hyperglycaemia for pathogenic GCK variants was similarly high across cohorts (ranging from 89 to 97%) despite substantial variation in the background rates of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Ascertainment context is crucial when interpreting the consequences of monogenic variants for age-related variably penetrant disorders. This finding has important implications for opportunistic screening during genomic testing.

Doubts have been raised about the value of DNA-based screening for low-prevalence monogenic conditions following reports of testing this approach using available electronic health record (EHR) as the sole phenotyping source. We hypothesized that a better model for EHR-focused examination of DNA-based screening is Cystic Fibrosis (CF) since the diagnosis is proactively sought within the healthcare system. We reviewed CFTR variants in 50,778 exomes. In 24 cases with bi-allelic pathogenic CFTR variants, there were 21 true-positives. We considered three cases “potential” false-positives due to limitations in available EHR phenotype data. This genomic screening exhibited a positive predictive value of 87.5%, negative predictive value of 99.9%, sensitivity of 95.5%, and a specificity of 99.9%. Despite EHR-based phenotyping limitations in three cases, the presence or absence of pathogenic CFTR variants has strong predictive value for CF diagnosis when EHR data is used as the sole phenotyping source. Accurate ascertainment of the predictive value of DNA-based screening requires condition-specific phenotyping beyond available EHR data.

Importance: VEXAS (vacuoles, E1-ubiquitin-activating enzyme, X-linked, autoinflammatory, somatic) syndrome is a disease with rheumatologic and hematologic features caused by somatic variants in UBA1. Pathogenic variants are associated with a broad spectrum of clinical manifestations. Knowledge of prevalence, penetrance, and clinical characteristics of this disease have been limited by ascertainment biases based on known phenotypes. This study used a genomic ascertainment approach to overcome these limitations and better define UBA1-related disease. Objective: Determine the prevalence of pathogenic variants in UBA1 and associated clinical manifestations in an unselected population using a genomic ascertainment approach. Design, Setting and Participants: This cohort study evaluated UBA1 variants in exome data from 163,096 participants within the Geisinger MyCode Community Health Initiative. Clinical phenotypes were determined from Geisinger electronic health record (EHR) data up to January 1st, 2022. Main outcomes and measures: Prevalence of somatic UBA1 variation; presence of rheumatologic, hematologic, pulmonary, dermatologic, and other symptoms in individuals with somatic UBA1 variation; structured and manual review of EHR; review of bone marrow biopsies; survival in carriers of somatic UBA1 variation. Results: In a retrospective study of 163,096 participants (mean age 52.8 years; 94% of European ancestry, 61% female), 11 individuals harbored somatic, known pathogenic UBA1 variants, with 100% having clinical manifestations consistent with VEXAS syndrome. We found a previously unreported UBA1 variant (c.1861A>T; p.Ser621Cys) in a symptomatic patient. Disease-causing UBA1 variants were found in ~1 in 14,000 unrelated individuals, and ~1 in 4,000 men >50 years old. A disease-causing UBA1 variant confers a ~ 6.6 higher probability of mortality vs. age-, sex-, and BMI-matched non-carriers. The majority (7, 58%) of individuals did not meet criteria for rheumatologic and hematologic diagnoses previously associated with VEXAS syndrome, however all individuals had anemia (mean 7.8 g/dL, median 7.5g/dL), mostly macrocytic (91%) with concomitant thrombocytopenia (91%). Finally, we identified a pathogenic variant in one male prior to onset of VEXAS-related signs or symptoms and two females had disease with heterozygous variants. Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study showed that the prevalence, penetrance, and expressivity of pathogenic UBA1 variants were higher than expected. More expansive UBA1 testing will lead to molecular diagnoses and improved treatment for patients.

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Monogenic causes in over 300 kidney-associated genes account for roughly 12% of end stage kidney disease (ESKD) cases. Advances in next generation sequencing, and large customized panels enable the diagnosis of monogenic kidney disease noninvasively at relatively low cost, allowing for more precise management for patients and their families. A major challenge is interpreting rare variants, many of which are classified as variants of unknown significance (VUS). We present a framework in which we thoroughly evaluated and provided evidence of pathogenicity for HNF1B-p.Arg303His, a VUS returned from clinical genetic testing for a kidney transplant candidate. This blueprint, designed by a multi-disciplinary team of clinicians, molecular biologists, and diagnostic geneticists, includes using a health system-based cohort with genetic and clinical information to perform deep phenotyping of VUS carriers, examination of existing genetic databases, as well as functional testing. With our approach, we demonstrate evidence for pathogenicity for HNF1B-p.Arg303His by showing similar burden of kidney manifestations in this variant to known HNF1B pathogenic variants, and greater burden compared to non-carriers. Determination of a molecular diagnosis for the example family allows for proper surveillance and management of HNF1B-related manifestations such as kidney disease, diabetes, and hypomagnesemia with important implications for safe living-related kidney donation. The candidate gene-variant pair also allows for clinical biomarker testing for aberrations of linked pathways. This working model may be applicable other diseases of genetic etiology.