Background: To determine if a modified ovarian sensitivity index (MOSI), based on initial follicular measurements and the initial follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) dose, can predict the production of high-quality embryos for successful implantation during in vitro fertilization (IVF). Methods: This study consisted of two phases: 1) a retrospective study and 2) a prospective observational study. For the first phase, 363 patients charts were reviewed, of which 283 had embryos transferred. All women underwent a standardized antagonist-based IVF protocol. At the first follow-up (Day 3/4), the number and size of the follicles were determined. MOSI was calculated as ln (number follicles (≥6 mm) × 1000 / FSH initial dose). Afterward, the number and quality of the ova, embryo development, and the number and quality of the blastocysts were determined. Embryo implantation was confirmed by β-hCG. For the second phase, 337 IVF cycles were followed to determine MOSI's accuracy. Results: MOSI could predict the production of ≥4 high-quality embryos by Day 2 (AUC = 0.69, 95%CI:0.63-0.75), ≥2 blastocysts (AUC = 0.74, 95%CI:0.68-0.79), and ≥ 35% rate of blastocyst formation (AUC = 0.65, 95%CI:0.58-0.72). Using linear regression, MOSI was highly associated with the number of ova captured (β = 5.15), MII oocytes (β = 4.31), embryos produced (β = 2.90), high-quality embryos (β = 0.98), and the blastocyst formation rate (β = 0.06, p < 0.01). Using logistic regression, MOSI was highly associated with achieving ≥4 high-quality embryos (odds ratio = 2.80, 95%CI:1.90-4.13), ≥2 blastocysts (odds ratio = 3.40, 95%CI: 2.33-4.95), and ≥ 35% blastocysts formation rate (odds ratio = 1.96, 95%CI:1.31-2.92). This effect was independent of age, BMI, and antral follicle count. For implantation, MOSI was significantly associated with successful implantation (odds ratio = 1.79, 95%CI:1.25-2.57). For the prospective study, MOSI was highly accurate at predicting ≥6 high-quality embryos on Day 2 (accuracy = 68.5%), ≥6 blastocysts (accuracy = 68.0%), and a blastocyst formation rate of ≥35% (accuracy = 61.4%).
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