Aims. The Euclid space telescope will measure the shapes and redshifts of galaxies to reconstruct the expansion history of the Universe and the growth of cosmic structures. The estimation of the expected performance of the experiment, in terms of predicted constraints on cosmological parameters, has so far relied on various individual methodologies and numerical implementations, which were developed for different observational probes and for the combination thereof. In this paper we present validated forecasts, which combine both theoretical and observational ingredients for different cosmological probes. This work is presented to provide the community with reliable numerical codes and methods for Euclid cosmological forecasts. Methods. We describe in detail the methods adopted for Fisher matrix forecasts, which were applied to galaxy clustering, weak lensing, and the combination thereof. We estimated the required accuracy for Euclid forecasts and outline a methodology for their development. We then compare and improve different numerical implementations, reaching uncertainties on the errors of cosmological parameters that are less than the required precision in all cases. Furthermore, we provide details on the validated implementations, some of which are made publicly available, in different programming languages, together with a reference training-set of input and output matrices for a set of specific models. These can be used by the reader to validate their own implementations if required. Results. We present new cosmological forecasts for Euclid. We find that results depend on the specific cosmological model and remaining freedom in each setting, for example flat or non-flat spatial cosmologies, or different cuts at non-linear scales. The numerical implementations are now reliable for these settings. We present the results for an optimistic and a pessimistic choice for these types of settings. We demonstrate that the impact of cross-correlations is particularly relevant for models beyond a cosmological constant and may allow us to increase the dark energy figure of merit by at least a factor of three.

We present a new, updated version of the EuclidEmulator (called EuclidEmulator2), a fast and accurate predictor for the nonlinear correction of the matter power spectrum. 2 per cent-level accurate emulation is now supported in the eight-dimensional parameter space of w0waCDM+∑mν models between redshift z = 0 and z = 3 for spatial scales within the range 0.01 h Mpc−1 ≤ k ≤ 10 h Mpc−1. In order to achieve this level of accuracy, we have had to improve the quality of the underlying N-body simulations used as training data: (i) we use self-consistent linear evolution of non-dark matter species such as massive neutrinos, photons, dark energy and the metric field, (ii) we perform the simulations in the so-called N-body gauge, which allows one to interpret the results in the framework of general relativity, (iii) we run over 250 high-resolution simulations with 30003 particles in boxes of 1(h−1 Gpc)3 volumes based on paired-and-fixed initial conditions and (iv) we provide a resolution correction that can be applied to emulated results as a post-processing step in order to drastically reduce systematic biases on small scales due to residual resolution effects in the simulations. We find that the inclusion of the dynamical dark energy parameter wa significantly increases the complexity and expense of creating the emulator. The high fidelity of EuclidEmulator2 is tested in various comparisons against N-body simulations as well as alternative fast predictors like HALOFIT, HMCode and CosmicEmu. A blind test is successfully performed against the Euclid Flagship v2.0 simulation. Nonlinear correction factors emulated with EuclidEmulator2 are accurate at the level of $1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ or better for 0.01 h Mpc−1 ≤ k ≤ 10 h Mpc−1 and z ≤ 3 compared to high-resolution dark matter only simulations. EuclidEmulator2 is publicly available at https://github.com/miknab/EuclidEmulator2.

Context. In metric theories of gravity with photon number conservation, the luminosity and angular diameter distances are related via the Etherington relation, also known as the distance duality relation (DDR). A violation of this relation would rule out the standard cosmological paradigm and point to the presence of new physics. Aims. We quantify the ability of Euclid, in combination with contemporary surveys, to improve the current constraints on deviations from the DDR in the redshift range 0 <  z <  1.6. Methods. We start with an analysis of the latest available data, improving previously reported constraints by a factor of 2.5. We then present a detailed analysis of simulated Euclid and external data products, using both standard parametric methods (relying on phenomenological descriptions of possible DDR violations) and a machine learning reconstruction using genetic algorithms. Results. We find that for parametric methods Euclid can (in combination with external probes) improve current constraints by approximately a factor of six, while for non-parametric methods Euclid can improve current constraints by a factor of three. Conclusions. Our results highlight the importance of surveys like Euclid in accurately testing the pillars of the current cosmological paradigm and constraining physics beyond the standard cosmological model.

Context. Stage IV weak lensing experiments will offer more than an order of magnitude leap in precision. We must therefore ensure that our analyses remain accurate in this new era. Accordingly, previously ignored systematic effects must be addressed. Aims. In this work, we evaluate the impact of the reduced shear approximation and magnification bias, on the information obtained from the angular power spectrum. To first-order, the statistics of reduced shear, a combination of shear and convergence, are taken to be equal to those of shear. However, this approximation can induce a bias in the cosmological parameters that can no longer be neglected. A separate bias arises from the statistics of shear being altered by the preferential selection of galaxies and the dilution of their surface densities, in high-magnification regions.Methods. The corrections for these systematic effects take similar forms, allowing them to be treated together. We calculate the impact of neglecting these effects on the cosmological parameters that would be determined from Euclid, using cosmic shear tomography. We also demonstrate how the reduced shear correction can be calculated using a lognormal field forward modelling approach. Results. These effects cause significant biases in Ω m , n s , σ 8 , Ω DE , w 0 , and w a of −0.51σ, −0.36σ, 0.37σ, 1.36σ, −0.66σ, and 1.21σ, respectively. We then show that these lensing biases interact with another systematic: the intrinsic alignment of galaxies. Accordingly, we develop the formalism for an intrinsic alignment-enhanced lensing bias correction. Applying this to Euclid, we find that the additional terms introduced by this correction are sub-dominant.

Upcoming surveys will map the growth of large-scale structure with unprecented precision, improving our understanding of the dark sector of the Universe. Unfortunately, much of the cosmological information is encoded on small scales, where the clustering of dark matter and the effects of astrophysical feedback processes are not fully understood. This can bias the estimates of cosmological parameters, which we study here for a joint analysis of mock Euclid cosmic shear and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We use different implementations for the modelling of the signal on small scales and find that they result in significantly different predictions. Moreover, the different non-linear corrections lead to biased parameter estimates, especially when the analysis is extended into the highly non-linear regime, with the Hubble constant, H0, and the clustering amplitude, σ8, affected the most. Improvements in the modelling of non-linear scales will therefore be needed if we are to resolve the current tension with more and better data. For a given prescription for the non-linear power spectrum, using different corrections for baryon physics does not significantly impact the precision of Euclid, but neglecting these correction does lead to large biases in the cosmological parameters. In order to extract precise and unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters from Euclid cosmic shear data, it is therefore essential to improve the accuracy of the recipes that account for non-linear structure formation, as well as the modelling of the impact of astrophysical processes that redistribute the baryons.