Abstract. Climate projections for the 21st century indicate that there could be a pronounced warming and permafrost degradation in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Climate warming is likely to cause permafrost thawing with subsequent effects on surface albedo, hydrology, soil organic matter storage and greenhouse gas emissions.To assess possible changes in the permafrost thermal state and active layer thickness, we implemented the GIPL2-MPI transient numerical model for the entire Alaska permafrost domain. The model input parameters are spatial datasets of mean monthly air temperature and precipitation, prescribed thermal properties of the multilayered soil column, and water content that are specific for each soil class and geographical location. As a climate forcing, we used the composite of five IPCC Global Circulation Models that has been downscaled to 2 by 2 km spatial resolution by Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) group.In this paper, we present the modeling results based on input of a five-model composite with A1B carbon emission scenario. The model has been calibrated according to the annual borehole temperature measurements for the State of Alaska. We also performed more detailed calibration for fifteen shallow borehole stations where high quality data are available on daily basis. To validate the model performance, we compared simulated active layer thicknesses with observed data from Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) stations. The calibrated model was used to address possible ground temperature changes for the 21st century. The model simulation results show widespread permafrost degradation in Alaska could begin between 2040-2099 within the vast area southward from the Brooks Range, except for the high altitude regions of the Alaska Range and Wrangell Mountains.

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Climate projections for the 21st century indicate that there could be a pronounced warming and permafrost degradation in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Climate warming is likely to cause permafrost thawing with subsequent effects on surface albedo, hydrology, soil organic matter storage and greenhouse gas emissions. To assess possible changes in the permafrost thermal state and active layer thickness, we implemented the GIPL2-MPI transient numerical model for the entire Alaska permafrost domain. Input parameters to the model are spatial datasets of mean monthly air temperature and precipitation, prescribed thermal properties of the multilayered soil column, and water content which are specific for each soil class and geographical location. As a climate forcing we used the composite of five IPCC Global Circulation Models that has been downscaled to 2 by 2 km spatial resolution by Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) group. <br></br> In this paper we present the preliminary modeling results based on input of five-model composite with A1B carbon emission scenario. The model has been calibrated according to the annual borehole temperature measurements for the State of Alaska. We also performed more detailed calibration for fifteen shallow borehole stations where high quality data are available on daily basis. To validate the model performance we compared simulated active layer thicknesses with observed data from CALM active layer monitoring stations. Calibrated model was used to address possible ground temperature changes for the 21st century. The model simulation results show the widespread permafrost degradation in Alaska could begin in 2040–2099 time frame within the vast area southward from the Brooks Range except for the high altitudes of the Alaska Range and Wrangell Mountains

[1] In arctic tundra, cryoturbation resulting from frost heave, cracking, and other cryogenic processes produces patterned ground such as nonsorted circles, stripes, nonsorted polygons, and earth hummocks. We studied cryogenic structures and morphological properties of soils associated with patterned-ground features along a bioclimate gradient in Arctic Alaska and Canada from north (subzone A) to south (subzone E). Most of these soils have strongly developed cryogenic features, including warped and broken horizons, and organic matter moved into the upper permafrost. The expression of cryoturbation generally increases with the gradient southward. Soil color reflects the lithology of the soil, weathering, and accumulation of organic matter. The organic horizons form around the circles, and gleyed matrix with redoximorphic features develop in the lower active layers due to saturation above the permafrost. Cryostructure development depends more on hydrology controlled by microtopography than position along the gradient. The cryostructures form due to freeze-thaw cycles and ice lens formation, which include granular, platy, lenticular, reticulate, suspended (ataxitic), ice lens, and ice wedges. On the surface, the density of nonsorted circles reached their maximum in subzones C and D. However, once the vegetation cover was removed, the nonsorted pattern grounds reached their optimum stage and become closed packed in subzone E. Frost heave decreases in the south as the vegetation changes from tussocks to shrub tundra. Cryogenesis is the controlling factor in patterned ground formation resulting in cryoturbated soil profiles, cryostructures, and carbon sequestration in arctic tundra soils.