Aim. To study the influence of systemic disorders on the risk of developing pancreatogenic encephalopathy. Materials and methods. In the period from 2010 to 2020, a prospective non-randomized cohort study was conducted at the clinical base of Department of Faculty Surgery of Volgograd State Medical University. ROC analysis was used to determine the impact of systemic disorders on the risk of developing pancreatogenic encephalopathy (PEP). The influence of the pancreatic necrosis trigger on the risk of multiple organ failure syndrome (MOF) was determined using logistic regression analysis. Results. The study included 429 patients with acute destructive pancreatitis. It was revealed that the debut of systemic disorders occurred on average on the first day of hospitalization. The most common were intestinal and cardiovascular insufficiency - 336 (78,3 %) and 242 (56,4 %) cases, respectively. In patients with alcohol-associated pancreatic necrosis (AAPN), intestinal failure was significantly more common [144 (84,7 %) versus 192 (74,1 %), OR = 1,93, CI 1,164-3,210, p = 0,012] and multiple systemic disorders [159 (93,5 %) versus 224 (86,5 %), OR = 1,18, CI 0,659-2,122, p = 0,025] than in patients with non-alcoholic pancreatic necrosis (NAPN). The conducted logistic regression analysis proved an increased risk of PEP in the presence of any organ dysfunction. However, no such relationship was found for acute renal failure. The risk of developing MODS in patients with AAPN increases by 37,5 % compared with patients with non-alcoholic pancreatic necrosis, while the specificity and sensitivity reach 75,3 % and 70,0 %, respectively. Conclusions. In patients with alcoholic genesis of pancreatic necrosis, the risk of intestinal failure, as well as multiple systemic disorders, significantly increases. A significant increase in the likelihood of organ and multiorgan disorders in patients with pancreatogenic encephalopathy was revealed.

Resume. Aim. Study of the dependence of the degree of risk of developing pancreatogenic encephalopathy (PEP) on demographic variables in patients with nutritional pancreatic necrosis. Materials and methods. A single-center prospective cohort non-randomized study was conducted on the basis of the Faculty Surgery Clinic of the Volgograd State Medical University in the period from 2010 to 2020. To determine the significance of the influence of a patient-dependent factor on the risk of developing PEP, ROC analysis was used. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the degree of risk of developing PEP against the background of a combination of several covariates. Results. The study included 429 patients with pancreatic necrosis of alimentary origin. A comparative analysis of the incidence of PEP was carried out depending on gender and age, the trigger of the disease (alcohol-associated versus non-alcoholic pancreatic necrosis) and comorbid background. It has been proven that significant factors that increase the risk of developing PEP are age over 60 years (p = 0,04), alcohol-associated pancreatic necrosis (p < 0,001) and cardiovascular pathology - ischemic heart disease (p < 0,001). A statistically significant regression model of the effect of cardiovascular pathology on the incidence of PEP has been developed, which makes it possible to calculate the risk of this complication in a particular patient. Conclusions. Significant demographic variables that increase the risk of PEP include age over 60 years, alcoholic pancreatitis, and the presence of coronary artery disease in a patient. The developed logistic model makes it possible to calculate the personalized risk of PEP during hospitalization of a patient with nutritional pancreatic necrosis.

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The objective: to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of developing encephalopathy (EP) in patients with nutritional pancreatic necrosis.Subjects and Methods. A single-center prospective cohort study was conducted at Faculty Surgery Clinic of Volgograd State Medical University from 2010 to 2020. Logistic regression analysis was used to build a model for predicting the risk of developing EP.Results. A total of 429 patients were included in the study. It was determined that in the majority of patients EP manifested in the first three days after hospitalization. A statistically significant predictive model of correlation of the risk to develop EP with clinical and demographic variables showed that an increase in the severity of the patient's condition (according to the SOFA scale) by 1 point increased the risk by 1.9 times, and an increase in bilirubin levels by 1 μmol/l, and urea by 1 mmol/l increased the risk of AED by 8.0% and 28.0%, respectively. In non-alcoholic pancreatic necrosis, compared with the alcoholic genesis of the disease, and when using early (before day 3) enteral nutrition, there was a significant reduction in the risk of developing EP by 175.5% and 137% of cases. The specificity and sensitivity of the model were 78.7% and 82.8%, respectively.Conclusions. In nurtitional pancreatic necrosis, an increase in the severity of the patient's condition, alcoholic genesis of the disease, progression of signs of liver and kidney failure significantly increased the risk of developing EP. At the same time, early enteral nutrition contributed to a significant reduction in the risk of this complication. The presented predictive model is recommended to be used in routine clinical practice.