Declines in animal body sizes are widely reported and likely impact ecological interactions and ecosystem services. For harvested species subject to multiple stressors, limited understanding of the causes and consequences of size declines impedes prediction, prevention, and mitigation. We highlight widespread declines in Pacific salmon size based on 60 years of measurements from 12.5 million fish across Alaska, the last largely pristine North American salmon-producing region. Declines in salmon size, primarily resulting from shifting age structure, are associated with climate and competition at sea. Compared to salmon maturing before 1990, the reduced size of adult salmon after 2010 has potentially resulted in substantial losses to ecosystems and people; for Chinook salmon we estimated average per-fish reductions in egg production (−16%), nutrient transport (−28%), fisheries value (−21%), and meals for rural people (−26%). Downsizing of organisms is a global concern, and current trends may pose substantial risks for nature and people.

In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission among an interconnected group of population centers representing counties, municipalities, and districts (collectively, “counties”). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of reopening (and reclosing, as needed) schools and workplaces county by county, according to triggers for county-specific infection prevalence, to a global strategy of province-wide reopening and reclosing, according to triggers for province-wide infection prevalence. For trigger levels that result in the same number of COVID-19 cases between the two strategies, the local strategy causes significantly fewer person-days of closure, even under high intercounty travel scenarios. However, both cases and person-days lost to closure rise when county triggers are not coordinated and when testing rates vary among counties. Finally, we show that local strategies can also do better in the early epidemic stage, but only if testing rates are high and the trigger prevalence is low. Our results suggest that pandemic planning for the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve should consider local strategies for reopening and reclosing.

Since its introduction in South America around 1990, the freshwater Asian mussel Limnoperna fortunei has been shown to strongly interact with several components of the local biota. However, investigation of its ecosystem-wide effects was hindered by (1) difficulties associated with evaluation of its densities over large spatial scales and (2) scarcity of preinvasion environmental data. The present survey overcomes these shortcomings and addresses the question whether Limnoperna's impact on the ecosystem-wide scale is measurable and significant. On the basis of divercollected bottom samples, we estimated the overall density of this mussel in a reservoir (Embalse de Río Tercero, Argentina), where Limnoperna is present since 1998 and analyzed changes in several water-column properties before and after the invasion. The 47 km 2 reservoir hosts around 45 billion mussels; at these densities, a volume equivalent to that of this water body can potentially be filtered by the bivalves every 2-3 days. Data collected regularly since 1996 indicate that after the invasion water transparency increased, and suspended matter, chlorophyll a, and primary production decreased significantly, with strong changes occurring in the area with highest mussel densities. Our results indicate that the ecosystem-wide impacts of Limnoperna are generally comparable to those described in Europe and North America for another invasive musselDreissena polymorpha. However, given Limnoperna's wider tolerance limits, its influence on newly invaded water bodies, potentially including Europe and North America, will probably be stronger.

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